Stocks Decline Ahead of US Manufacturing News

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.16%.

Stocks today are moderately lower as they await fresh US economic news that will offer insight into the health of the US economy and determine the path of the Fed’s interest rate policy.  Weakness in chip stocks is a drag on the overall market.  Also, today’s -3% plunge in WTI crude prices weighed on energy stocks.

Today’s US Aug ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb by +0.7 to 47.5, with the prices paid sub-index easing to 52.0 from 52.9 in July. On Thursday, the Aug ISM services index is expected to ease to 51.1 from 51.4 in July.  Finally, on Friday, Aug nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb +165,000 from +114,000 in July and the Aug unemployment rate is expected to ease to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.

US stocks are being undercut by concern that weakness in China’s economy will undercut global growth prospects after China’s Aug manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.3 to a 6-month low of 49.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.5.

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 34% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets today are lower.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell back from a 7-week high and is down -0.35%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 6-3/4 month low and closed down -0.29%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.04%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) today are up +13 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -5.2 bp at 3.852%.  Dec T-notes today recovered from a 2-week low and are moderately higher, and the 10-year T-note yield fell back from a 2-week high of 3.930%.  Weakness in stocks today has spurred some safe-haven buying of T-notes.   Also, a -3% plunge in crude prices today has weighed on inflation expectations and boosted T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 2.125%. 

Supply pressures are negative for T-notes, with as much as $55 billion of corporate debt expected to be issued this week, which prompts bond dealers to short T-notes as a hedge against the incoming supply.   

European government bond yields today are moving lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -5.1 bp at 2.287%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.5 bp at 3.990%.

The Eurozone Aug S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 45.8 from the previously reported 45.6.

German May retail sales fell -1.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.7% y/y.

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 99% for the September 12 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Chip stocks are falling today and are weighing on the overall market. Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -3%.  Also, Analog Devices (ADI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Broadcom (AVGO), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -2%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are moving lower, with the price of WTI crude oil down more than -1% to a 1-1/2 week low.  As a result, APA Corp (APA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Phillips 66 (PSX), Haliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Marathon Oil (MRO), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -2%.

Mining stocks are under pressure today, with Comex copper futures prices down more than -2% at a 2-week low.  As a result, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is down more than -5%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) is down more than -4%.  Also, ArcelorMittal (MT) is down more than -3%.

Boeing (BA) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $119.  

US Steel (X) is down more than -3% after US presidential candidate Harris said the company should remain domestically owned and operated, which may hurt Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of US Steel.

Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) is down more than -3% after Benchmark downgraded the stock to sell from hold.

CME Group (CME) is down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after CEO Liang said the company doesn’t anticipate any material changes in its fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 results even after delaying its annual report filing. 

Autodesk (ADSK) is up more than +3% after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $299.

Unity Software (U) is up more than +10% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $22. 

Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +1% after Reuters reported that Elliot Investment Management increased its stake in the company to 10% of outstanding shares, which allows the hedge fund to call a special meeting of Southwest’s board of directors.

NetApp (NTAP) is up nearly +1% after Loop Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $150.

Vaxcyte (PCVX) is up more than +44% after the company’s Vax-31 vaccine, designed to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease, was advanced to a Phase 3 program after it demonstrated robust opsonophagocytic immune response in a previous study. 

Earnings Reports (9/3/2024)

Asana Inc (ASAN), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), HealthEquity Inc (HQY), Lovesac Co/The (LOVE), PagerDuty Inc (PD), Zscaler Inc (ZS).

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