Stocks Close in the Red, Nvidia Trades Lower After Earnings Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.60%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.18%.

Stocks settled lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 2-week low.  Weakness in chip stocks weighed on the overall market ahead of quarterly earnings results from Nvidia.  

After-hours, Nvidia reported earnings, which exceeded expectations and included positive guidance for the current quarter, but failed to impress investors, leading to an 7% decline in the stock price after the bell. The company's revenue surged 122% year-over-year, driven by robust growth in its data center business, which includes AI processors. Net income also saw a significant increase, more than doubling compared to the previous year. Despite these positive results, investors may be concerned about the company's rapid valuation and future prospects.

Corporate news Wednesday was mixed for stocks.  Super Micro Computer closed down more than -19% after it said it would delay filing its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024.  Also, Foot Locker closed down more than -10% after cutting its 2025 gross margin forecast. In addition, J M Smucker fell more than -4% after cutting its full-year net sales forecast.

On the positive side, Box Inc. closed up more than +10% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and raising its 2025 adjusted EPS forecast.  Also, Nordstrom closed up more than +4% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 net sales and raising its full-year comparable sales forecast.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.5% in the week ended August 23, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.9% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -0.1%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -6 bp to a 16-month low of 6.44% from 6.50% in the prior week.

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 36% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets Wednesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 5-week high and closed up +0.29%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 6-1/2 month low and closed down -0.40%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.22%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU24) Wednesday closed up +0.5 of a tick.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.9 bp to 3.841%.  T-note prices Wednesday settled little changed. Strength in 10-year German bunds Wednesday provided carryover support to T-notes.  Also, decent demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion 5-year T-note auction boosted T-note prices after the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.41, above the 10-auction average of 2.39.  An increase in inflation expectations was bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate Wednesday rose to a 3-1/2 week high of 2.159%.   

European government bond yields on Wednesday were mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.8 bp to 2.261%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +0.3 bp to 4.001%.

The Eurozone July M3 money supply rose +2.3% y/y, unchanged from Jun and the largest increase in 17 months, but weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y.

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 100% for the September 12 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Weakness in chip stocks on Wednesday weighed on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -4%, and Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -3%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -2%.  In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductors NV (ON), Analog Devices (ADI), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -1%.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -19% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it said it would delay filing its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024. 

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) closed down -7% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.53 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.54 billion, and forecasting Q3 EPS of 41 cents-47 cents, below the consensus of 52 cents. 

J M Smucker (SJM) closed down more than -4% after cutting its full-year net sales forecast to +8.5% to +9.5% from a previous forecast of +9.5% to +10.5%.

Foot Locker (FL) closed down more than -10% after cutting its 2025 gross margin forecast to 29.5%-29.7% from a previous forecast of 29.8%-30%, weaker than the consensus of 29.8%.  Nike (NKE) also closed down more than -2% on the news to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) closed down more than -4% after Wedbush cut its price target on the stock to $324 from $400.

nCino Inc (NCNO) closed down more than -13% after forecasting Q3 revenue of $136 million-$138 million, below the consensus of $138.6 million. 

PVH Corp (PVH) closed down more than -6% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of about $2.50, well below the consensus of $3.12, 

Patterson Cos (PDCO) closed down more than -12% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.54 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.59 billion. 

Insulet (PODD) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Insulet added to Tuesday’s 6% jump after receiving FDA clearance for its Omnipod 5 to treat people with Type 2 diabetes ages 18 years and older.

Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) closed up more than +2% after Nephron Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $390. 

Box Inc (BOX) closed up more than +10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 44 cents, better than the consensus of 41 cents, and raising its 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $1.64-$1.66 from a previous estimate of $1.54-$1.58, stronger than the consensus of $1.62. 

Nordstrom (JWN) closed up more than +4% after reporting Q2 net sales of $3.79 billion, above the consensus of $3.78 billion, and raising its full-year comparable sales forecast to 0% to +2% from a prior view of -1% to +2%. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) closed up more than +9% after Alembic Global Advisors upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $216. 

Earnings Reports (8/29/2024)

Autodesk Inc (ADSK), Best Buy Co Inc (BBY), Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK), Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Burlington Stores Inc (BURL), Campbell Soup Co (CPB), Catalent Inc (CTLT), Dell Technologies Inc (DELL), Dollar General Corp (DG), Elastic NV (ESTC), Gap Inc/The (GAP), HashiCorp Inc (HCP), Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), MongoDB Inc (MDB), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI), Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA).