Stock Index Futures Tread Water as Investors Brace for Fed Minutes and Powell’s Speech

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.01%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.09% this morning as market participants geared up for the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 posting a 1-month high, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a 3-1/2 week high, and the blue-chip Dow posting a 2-week high. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) surged over +16% after the shipping giant reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing the acquisition of AI infrastructure provider ZT Systems in a deal valued at about $4.9 billion. In addition, McDonald’s (MCD) advanced over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Evercore ISI raised its price target on the stock to $320 from $300. On the bearish side, HP Inc. (HPQ) fell more than -3% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight.

Economic data on Monday showed that the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. dropped -0.6% m/m in July, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told the Wall Street Journal in an interview released on Monday that it was appropriate to discuss potentially lowering U.S. interest rates in September due to the increasing likelihood of a weakening labor market. “The balance of risks has shifted, so the debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have,” he said. Kashkari stated inflation was making progress, but the labor market was exhibiting “concerning signs,” according to the Journal. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Financial Times in an interview published on Sunday that recent U.S. economic data have provided her “more confidence” that inflation is under control and it is time to consider adjusting benchmark borrowing costs. Daly advocated for a “prudent” approach to policy, dismissing concerns about the risk of a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the July meeting on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday to gain further clarity on the outlook for rate cuts.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 75.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 24.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Amer Sports (AS) are set to report their quarterly figures today.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Tuesday. However, investors will likely focus on speeches from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.870%, down -0.03%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.27% this morning as investors digested key inflation data from the region and looked ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Technology stocks led the gains on Tuesday, while energy stocks lost ground. Data from the Federal Statistical Office revealed Tuesday that German annual producer prices declined for the 13th consecutive month in July, although at the slowest rate in the sequence. Separately, final data from Eurostat released Tuesday showed that the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone increased to 2.6% in July from 2.5% in the previous month, consistent with the preliminary estimate. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated Monday at an event in New York that increasing risks to Europe’s growth outlook have strengthened the case for a policy adjustment at the next central bank meeting. In other news, Sweden’s Riksbank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% from 3.75% and signaled two to three additional rate cuts this year.

Germany’s PPI, Eurozone’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Core CPI data were released today.

The German July PPI has been reported at +0.2% m/m and -0.8% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone July CPI came in at 0.0% m/m and +2.6% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone July Core CPI arrived at -0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.93% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.80%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, reversing gains from the previous session as the absence of new stimulus measures dampened sentiment. Energy and biotech stocks led the declines on Tuesday, while bank stocks outperformed. Meanwhile, China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing, in line with expectations, as profit margins faced pressure and policymakers focused on the health of financial institutions. The one-year loan prime rate was maintained at 3.35% and the five-year rate was held at 3.85%, according to a statement from the People’s Bank of China on Tuesday. This decision followed a reduction of 10 basis points in both benchmark loan rates in July. Analysts anticipate another cut in the fourth quarter and next year, along with additional easing of the required reserve ratio to support the economy. In other news, China’s Kaisa Group announced on Tuesday an offshore debt restructuring agreement with a group of creditors through the issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated senior bonds and mandatory convertible bonds. In corporate news, Hengan International slumped over -6% in Hong Kong after the personal hygiene products maker reported mixed first-half results.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight. Those moves occurred as investors anticipate Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later in the week, where he is expected to strongly hint that rate cuts will begin soon. The Japanese yen was little changed at around 146.50 per dollar. Meanwhile, SMBC Nikko Securities stated in a research note that the Nikkei Stock Average is expected to reach 42,500 by year-end, while the broader Topix index is anticipated to hit around 3,000. In other news, the Nikkei Business Daily reported late on Monday that Japan’s government intends to increase its long-term interest rate estimate used for compiling the state budget to 2.1% for the next fiscal year, up from the current year’s 1.9%. In corporate news, Japan Excellent gained over +1% after lifting its distribution forecast for the fiscal year ending December 31st by 6.5% to 2,770 yen per unit from the prior estimate of 2,600 yen. Market participants are anticipating Japanese inflation figures due Friday to gain insight into the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy trajectory. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -6.47% to 27.61.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP) spiked about +130% in pre-market trading after entering a merger agreement with privately held Malaysian company KE Sdn. Bhd.

Actelis Networks (ASNS) surged over +40% in pre-market trading after announcing a strategic partnership with an advanced cybersecurity provider to develop an AI-powered SaaS offering under its “Cyber Aware Networking Initiative.”

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company posted upbeat Q4 results and offered solid FY25 guidance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Edward Jones initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and added it to its “Stock Focus List.”

BioMarin (BMRN) advanced more than +1% in pre-market trading after Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $110.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - August 20th

Lowe’s (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Alcon (ALC), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO), Toll Brothers (TOL), Futu (FUTU), Coty Inc (COTY), Vipshop (VIPS), Amer Sports (AS), PagSeguro Digital (PAGS), GDS Holdings (GDS), Premier Inc (PINC), La-Z-Boy (LZB), FinVolution Group (FINV), Navios Maritime Unit (NMM), John B Sanfilippo&Son (JBSS), Kingsoft Cloud (KC), Nano X (NNOX).

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