Stock Index Futures Muted as Bond Yields Climb, FedEx Soars on Upbeat Results

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.03%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.12% this morning as U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, while FedEx shares surged following better-than-expected quarterly results and profit forecast.

FedEx Corporation (FDX) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the shipping giant posted upbeat Q4 results, provided strong full-year adjusted EPS guidance, and said it would buy back $2.5 billion of its stock over the next year.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Carnival (CCL) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported upbeat Q2 results and provided above-consensus Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Also, mega-cap technology stocks gained ground, with Nvidia (NVDA) climbing more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Meta Platforms (META) rising over +2%. In addition, Capri Holdings (CPRI) advanced more than +1% after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $43. On the bearish side, Pool Corp. (POOL) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company cut its full-year EPS forecast on weaker-than-expected demand.

Economic data on Tuesday showed that the U.S. CB consumer confidence index edged down to 100.4 in June, stronger than expectations of 100.0. Also, the U.S. June Richmond Fed manufacturing survey fell to -10, weaker than expectations of -3. In addition, the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +7.2% y/y in April from +7.5% y/y in March (revised from +7.4% y/y), stronger than expectations of +7.0% y/y.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated Tuesday that she sees several upside risks to the inflation outlook and reiterated the necessity of maintaining elevated borrowing costs for an extended period. “We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate,” Bowman said. During a moderated discussion following her speech, the Fed governor stated that she does not foresee any interest rate cuts this year. At the same time, Fed Governor Lisa Cook indicated that she sees it as appropriate to lower interest rates “at some point,” noting her expectation of gradual inflation improvement this year followed by more rapid progress in 2025. “The timing of any such adjustment will depend on how economic data evolve and what they imply for the economic outlook and balance of risks,” Cook said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 10.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in July and a 57.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

The focus this week will be on the May reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s first-line inflation gauge, set to be released on Friday.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Micron Technology (MU), General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), Levi Strauss (LEVI), and AeroVironment (AVAV) are set to report their quarterly figures today.

On the economic data front, investors will direct their attention to U.S. New Home Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that May new home sales will come in at 636K, compared to the previous number of 634K.

The U.S. Building Permits data will come in today. Economists expect May’s figure to be 1.386M, compared to 1.440M in April.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -2.600M, compared to last week’s value of -2.547M.

Later today, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual stress test for the biggest U.S. banks.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.284%, up +1.09%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.58% this morning, bouncing back from previous losses, as investors digested dovish comments from a European Central Bank official. Technology and mining stocks led the gains on Wednesday. A survey released on Wednesday indicated that German consumer sentiment unexpectedly dipped heading into July, snapping a four-month streak of increases. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated on Wednesday that investor expectations for the central bank to ease monetary policy twice more this year and lower borrowing costs to as low as 2.25% in 2025 are reasonable. The Finnish central bank chief also emphasized that while officials must ensure inflation returns to 2%, they should avoid excessively dampening economic activity. In corporate news, DHL Group (DHL.D.DX) gained about +2% following an upbeat profit forecast from its U.S. peer, FedEx.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index and France’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.

The German July GfK Consumer Climate Index arrived at -21.8, weaker than expectations of -19.4.

The French June Consumer Confidence stood at 89, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.76%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.26%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, snapping five days of losses. Gains in semiconductor stocks led the overall market higher on Wednesday. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year bond yield dropped to its lowest level in over two decades on Wednesday, driven by investor demand for fixed-income securities amid concerns over the slowing economy and expectations for additional stimulus measures. In other news, a liquidation case against Chinese property developer Shimao Group has been postponed to July 31st, following another extension of the deadline for creditors regarding a debt restructuring plan. In corporate news, NetEase climbed over +6% after China approved 104 new video games from mainland developers in June, following approvals of fewer than 100 titles in each of the previous two months. Investor focus is currently centered on the release of crucial Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index data for June, scheduled for Saturday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, hitting an almost 3-month high. Chip-related and other technology stocks outperformed on Wednesday, buoyed by the robust performance of AI darling Nvidia and other prominent U.S. tech giants overnight. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, driven by uncertainties surrounding monetary policy and future bond issuance, which discouraged buying. The yen hovered just below the psychologically important level of 160 per dollar, a breach of which will likely boost concerns about intervention. In corporate news, Advantest surged about +7% after projecting market growth and outlining a plan to boost earnings in the coming years. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.36% to 16.68.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading. Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +2%. Also, Micron (MU) is up more than +3%, and Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +1%. 

FedEx Corporation (FDX) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the shipping giant posted upbeat Q4 results, provided strong full-year adjusted EPS guidance, and said it would buy back $2.5 billion of its stock over the next year.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) soared about +34% in pre-market trading following its announcement of a blockbuster deal with Volkswagen, which includes providing up to $5 billion in capital. In return, VW gains access to Rivian’s software and electrical technology for its EVs. The pair will also establish a joint venture aimed at supplying software and EV architecture to both companies in the future.

U.S. Steel (X) rose nearly +2% in pre-market trading after BMO Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $45.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) gained over +3% in pre-market trading after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $29 price target.

Accenture (ACN) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $300.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - June 26th

Micron Technology (MU), Paychex (PAYX), General Mills (GIS), Levi Strauss (LEVI), AeroVironment (AVAV), H B Fuller (FUL), Concentrix (CNXC), Unifirst (UNF), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Worthington Steel (WS), BlackBerry (BB), Novagold (NG), Daktronics (DAKT), Franklin Covey (FC).

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