Stocks See Support as US Inflation Report Meets Market Expectations

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.16%.

US stock indexes are seeing support after this morning’s PCE deflator report was in line with market expectations, keeping alive hopes for a slow improvement in the inflation outlook and interest rate cuts by the Fed later this year.  Stocks are seeing support from a -5.1 bp decline in the US 10-year T-note yield.  Tech stocks are being undercut by disappointing corporate news for Dell and chip-company Marvell.

The April PCE deflator report of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y was unchanged from March and was in line with market expectations.  The April core PCE deflator report of +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y was also in line with market expectations.  The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. 

The April PCE deflator report of +2.7% y/y remained 0.2 points above the 3-year low of +2.5% y/y posted in January and February.   The core PCE deflator report of +2.8% y/y was unchanged from the 3-year low of +2.8% posted in February and March.  The nominal and real PCE deflators are still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but those measures are at least near or at 3-year lows.

Meanwhile, April US personal spending rose +0.2% m/m, down from March’s revised +0.7% (preliminary +0.8%) and slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%.  April real personal spending fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1%.   April US personal income rose +0.3% m/m, down from March’s +0.5% but in line with market expectations.

In mildly hawkish comments, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said late Thursday afternoon that policy “is just not as restrictive as we think it might have been relative to the level of interest rates before the pandemic.”  She said, “It’s really important to keep all the options on the table and that we continue to be flexible,” which seemed to indicate she wants to leave open the outside possibility of a rate hike.  However, she also said there are good reasons to believe we’re still on the path to 2% inflation. 

The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 0% for the June 11-12 FOMC meeting and 12% for the following meeting on July 30-31.

Generally positive Q1 earnings results are supportive of stocks.  Q1 earnings are expected to climb +7.1% y/y, well above the pre-earnings season estimate of +3.8%.  According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, about 81% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten Q1 earnings estimates. 

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.19%.  China's Shanghai Composite today closed down -0.16%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 Index closed up +1.14%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) today are up +10.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -5.1 bp at 4.495%.  June T-notes moved higher after the PCE deflator report was in line with market expectations, leading to hopes for a slow improvement in inflation as the year progresses.  T-note prices also saw support after the April US personal spending report of +0.2% m/m was slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%. Also, April US real personal spending fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1%.

Eurozone government bond yields today are higher on a disappointing Eurozone CPI report.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.6 bp at 2.657%.  However, the 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.9 bp at 4.328%.

The Eurozone May preliminary CPI rose to +2.6% y/y from +2.4% in April and was slightly stronger than market expectations of +2.5%.  The Eurozone May preliminary core CPI rose to +2.9% y/y from +2.7% in April and was stronger than market expectations of +2.7%.

The Eurozone CPI report didn’t have much impact on nearly unanimous expectations for the ECB at its meeting next Thursday to cut its benchmark rate by -25 bp.  However, today’s CPI report dampened expectations for further ECB rate cuts following next week’s meeting.  

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 97% for its next meeting on June 6.  If the ECB cuts rates by -25 bp next week as expected, then the markets are expecting only a 9% chance of another rate cut at the following meeting on July 18 and a 56% chance of a rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Gap (GPS) is up +20% after reporting better-than-expected results and raising its full-year guidance.

Zscaler (ZS) is up +12% today after beating earnings expectations and raising its full-year guidance.

Ulta (ULTA) is up +1% after beating Q1 earnings estimates.

Dell Technologies (DELL) is down -19% after reporting revenue that was below expectations and that undercut high hopes for the company’s AI server products.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down -8% after reporting revenue and guidance that was in line with market expectations.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is down -4% after Donald Trump on Thursday was convicted by a NY jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

Earnings Reports (5/31/2024)

Genesco Inc (GCO), Mesa Laboratories Inc (MLAB).

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