Stocks Rally as US-Iran Peace Deal Sinks Oil and Bond Yields

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +2.79%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +1.72%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +2.89%. 

Stocks are soaring today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1-week highs, and the Dow Jones industrials posting a new record high. Crude oil prices and global bond yields are tumbling today, giving equity markets a boost after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the signing of the peace deal on Friday in Switzerland, which will trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran's nuclear program.  However, if an agreement isn't reached on nuclear, the US could restart military attacks.

Gains in technology stocks are leading the overall market higher today.  Also, airline stocks are climbing today as the slump in crude oil lowers fuel costs, and metal prices and mining stocks are rallying as the drop in oil prices is dovish for the world’s central banks.  

On the downside, falling crude prices are weighing on energy producers.  Also, today’s weaker-than-expected US economic reports on the June Empire manufacturing survey, May manufacturing production, and the June NAHB housing market index were bearish for stocks.

The US Jun Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -13.9 to 5.7, weaker than expectations of 13.7.

US May manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The US Jun NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to 35, weaker than expectations of no change at 37.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -5% today at a 3-month low on news of the end of the US-Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  The plunge in oil prices has eased inflation expectations and lowered global bond yields.  The 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-month low of 4.42% today. 

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and is up +0.75%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.5-week high and closed up +1.61%.  Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average surged to a new all-time high and closed up +4.99%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +10 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.2 bp to 4.447%.  Sep T-notes rallied to a 1-month high today, and the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-month low of 4.418%.  Today’s -5% plunge in WTI crude oil to a 3-month low has lowered inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes.  Also, today’s weaker-than-expected US economic reports were supportive for T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield tumbled to a 2-week low of 2.944% and is down -4.2 bp to 2.953%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1.75-month low of 4.767% and is down -2.7 bp to 4.808%.

Eurozone Apr industrial production rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, "The ECB raised the inflation forecast quite significantly, but the risks in my view are still on the upside for inflation," so the ECB is ready to take further action to stop the rise in energy prices from spreading to the rest of the economy.

Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are moving higher today to support gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +4% today to a new record high.  Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +9%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +7%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +5%.   In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Lam Research (LRCX), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +4%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +3%.   

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today as the end of the US-Iran war has sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets.  Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +3%.  Also, Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) are up more than +2%, and Apple (AAPL) is up more than +1%.  In addition, Tesla (TSLA) is up +0.29%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -5% plunge in WTI crude lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies.  Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is up more than +5%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +4%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +3%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +1%.

Mining stocks are moving higher today as gold, silver, and copper prices are sharply higher.  Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +9%, and Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +8%.  Also, Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +7%, and Barrick Mining (B) and Newmont Corp (NEM) are up more than +5%.  In addition, Southern Copper (SCCO) is up more than +2%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining today with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +4% to a 1.5-week high.  Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up more than +7%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +5%. Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +2%.

Energy stocks and service providers are sinking today, with WTI crude down more than -5% at a 3-month low. Valero Energy (VLO) is down more than -5%, and APA Corp (APA) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are down more than -4%.  Also, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Haliburton (HAL) is down more than -2%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Devon Energy (DVN) are down more than -1%. 

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) is up more than +7% on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock. 

TripAdvisor (TRIP) is up more than +4% after agreeing to sell TheFork, an online restaurant reservation and management platform in Europe, to American Express for $700 million.

Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +2% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300.

Hawkeye 360 Inc (HAWK) is up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $34. 

Elicio Therapeutics (ELTX) is down more than -72% after it said its Phase 2 study of its vaccine to treat patients with pancreatic cancer did not meet the pre-specified primary endpoint.

Fox Corp (FOXA) is down more than -16% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after paying $22 billion to acquire Roku.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $228. 

Earnings Reports(6/15/2026)

None.