Stocks Soar on US-Iran Peace Agreement

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +1.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +1.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +2.73%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +1.61%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +2.65%. 

Stocks are soaring today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1-week highs, and the Dow Jones industrials posting a new record high. Crude oil prices and global bond yields are tumbling today, giving equity markets a boost after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the signing of the peace deal on Friday in Switzerland, which will trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran's nuclear program.  However, if an agreement isn't reached on nuclear, the US could restart military attacks.

Gains in technology stocks are leading the overall market higher today.  Also, airline stocks are climbing today as the slump in crude oil lowers fuel costs, and metal prices and mining stocks are rallying as the drop in oil prices is dovish for the world’s central banks.  

On the negative side, falling crude prices are weighing on energy-producing stocks.  Also, today’s weaker-than-expected US Empire and manufacturing production reports were bearish for stocks.

The US Jun Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -13.9 to 5.7, weaker than expectations of 13.7.

US May manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -5% today at a 3-month low on news of the end of the US-Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  The plunge in oil prices has eased inflation expectations and pushed global bond yields lower.  The 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-month low of 4.42% today. 

The markets are discounting a 4% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and is up +1.12%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.5-week high and closed up +1.61%.  Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average surged to a new all-time high and closed up +4.99%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +10 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.02 bp to 4.449%.  Sep T-notes rallied to a 1-month high today, and the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-month low of 4.418%.  Today’s -5% plunge in WTI crude oil to a 3-month low has lowered inflation expectations and is bullish for T-notes.  Also, today’s weaker-than-expected US economic reports were supportive for T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield tumbled to a 2-week low of 2.944% and is down -4.3 bp to 2.952%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1.75-month low of 4.767% and is down -3.2 bp to 4.803%.

Eurozone Apr industrial production rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, "The ECB raised the inflation forecast quite significantly, but the risks in my view are still on the upside for inflation," so the ECB is ready to take further action to stop the rise in energy prices from spreading to the rest of the economy.

Swaps are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are moving higher today to support gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +4% today to a new record high.  Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are up more than +8%.  Also, Intel (INTC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Lam Research (LRCX), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +5%.   

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today as the end of the US-Iran war has sparked risk-on sentiment in asset markets.  Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +3%.  Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +2%, and Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) are up more than +1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are rallying today as the -5% plunge in WTI crude lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies.  Alaska Air Group (ALK) and  Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are up more than +6%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Carnival (CCL) are up more than +5%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +4%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +3%.

Mining stocks are moving higher today as gold, silver, and copper prices are sharply higher.  Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +10%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) is up more than +9%.  Also, Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +8%, and Barrick Mining (B) and Newmont Corp (NEM) are up more than +6%.  In addition, Southern Copper (SCCO) is up more than +5%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +4%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining today with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +4% to a 1.5-week high.  MARA Holdings (MARA) and Strategy (MSTR) are up more than +7%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +6%. Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +4%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are sinking today, with WTI crude down more than -5% at a 3-month low. APA Corp (APA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -5%.  Also, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  In addition, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are down more than -4%, and Devon Energy (DVN) and Haliburton (HAL) are down more than -3%. 

TripAdvisor (TRIP) is up more than +9% after agreeing to sell TheFork, an online restaurant reservation and management platform in Europe, to American Express for $700 million.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) is up more than +5% on positive carryover from its record $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) late last week, which was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock. 

Hawkeye 360 Inc (HAWK) is up more than +8% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $34.  

Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +1% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300.

Elicio Therapeutics (ELTX) is down more than -73% after it said its Phase 2 study of its vaccine to treat patients with pancreatic cancer did not meet the pre-specified primary endpoint.

Fox Corp (FOXA) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after paying $22 billion to acquire Roku.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is down more than -1% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $228. 

Earnings Reports(6/15/2026)

None.