Soybeans Fall 1% - 1.5% on Thursday

With lower than expected soybean sales, beans pushed lower through most of the Thursday session. March had gotten below the $12 mark, but closed 2 ¾ cents off the low to hold above the round number. Soymeal futures ended the trading day with 1.7% to 1.9% losses of as much as $6.90. Soy oil futures closed the day down by 1%. 

The monthly Fats and Oils report showed 204.3 mbu of soybeans were crushed in December. That was a new all-time high but was slightly below the trade average guess. NASS data has the season total at 780.5 mbu through Dec, which is also a record pace and compares to 741.2 mbu last year. Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.36 billion lbs, from 1.214b in November and 1.76 billion expected. 

EIA released official biodiesel and renewable diesel production and capacity numbers for November on Wednesday. Renewable diesel was up 6% from a year ago at 224 million gallons, but still well down from the record set in September (251 million gallons). Bean oil use as the feedstock improved to 36.2% but is still down due to competition (see below). 

Weekly Export Sales data had a new MY low for bean bookings with just 164.5k MT sold during the week that ended 1/25. Estimates were to see at least 500k MT and as much as 1.05 MMT. Old crop soybean commitments were listed at 1.4 bbu, which remains 19% behind last year’s pace. The weekly update put soymeal sales at 494k MT for the week and soybean oil bookings at 1k MT. 

Private analyst firm StoneX reduced their outlook for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop by 1.6% to 150.35 MMT – citing weather. They then dropped exports by 2 MMT to 93 MMT.  Anec estimates the Brazilian soybean exports at 2.49 MMT for the month of January. 

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.03 1/4, down 19 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $11.51 5/8, down 13 1/2 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.13 3/4, down 19 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.23 3/4, down 18 cents,