Beans Drop Double Digits for 11/12th Consecutive Red Week

Soybean futures were down by another 10 to 14 cents across the front months, which left the weekly chart with the 11th red candle (-$1.50) over the past 12 weeks. Soymeal futures closed with more than 2% losses on Friday, leaving the front months at a weekly drop of $6. Soy oil futures closed firmer with 32 to 40 point gains for the front months. 

The CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money traders on a 91,842 contract net short as of 1/23. That was a 15k contract stronger net short with new sellers and fewer longs. Commercial soybean hedgers had added 29.7k new positions during the week, but the new longs offset the new shorts for a 9.4k contract weaker net short of 1,556 contracts. Managed money traders were also adding new meal shorts and closing meal longs during the week, on net growing their net short to 19k contracts. Spec traders were shown adding soybean oil longs for the week, which reduced their net short by 2.3k contracts to 44.7k. 

The weekly FAS Export Sales data showed 560,869 MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 1/18. That was below expectations and was 57% of last year’s volume. Bean commitments were at 37.9 MMT as of 1/18 compared to 45.3 MMT last year. 

The BA Grain Exchange estimates 98% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted. Condition was rated 44% good/ex, a sharp drop from the previous week. That group rates 8% of the crop in poor condition vs. only 2% the previous week.  Their production estimate of 52.5 MMT is still larger than the most recent USDA figure of 50 MMT. 

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.09 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $11.55 7/8, down 12 7/8 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.16 1/4, down 14 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.24, down 13 1/2 cents,