Stocks Settle Mixed as Bond Yields Fall Despite a Strong U.S. CPI Report

What you need to know…

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed down -0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.17%.

Stocks on Thursday settled mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a record high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-1/2 week high. Disappointing news on U.S. consumer prices weighed on the overall market Thursday after the Dec CPI rose more than expected, dampening expectations for rate cuts from the Fed.  Also, signs of strength in the U.S. labor market were hawkish for Fed policy after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 month low.   

Fed comments on Thursday were mixed for stocks.  Stocks recovered from their worst levels on dovish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin who said he is open to moving interest rates lower once it is clear inflation is on a path back toward the Fed's 2% target.  Conversely, Cleveland Fed President Mester said today's U.S. December CPI report shows the Fed's job isn't done yet and that March is probably "too early" for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates. 

Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushed crude prices up more than +1% and were negative for stocks after Iran captured an oil tanker off the coast of Oman.  Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran had a court order to seize the ship that the U.S. previously seized for carrying illicit Iranian oil.

The markets are also awaiting the Q1 corporate earnings season that kicks off Friday with bank earnings results from Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.  Expectations are for bank results to show that net interest margins remain under pressure from higher funding costs.

U.S. Dec CPI climbed to +3.4% y/y from +3.1% y/y in Nov, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y.  The Dec core CPI eased to +3.9% y/y from +4.0% y/y in Nov, the smallest increase in 2-1/2 years but above expectations of +3.8% y/y.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -1,000 to a 2-1/2 month low of 202,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 210,000.

The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the next FOMC meeting on Jan 30-31 and 73% for that same -25 bp rate cut for the following meeting on March 19-20.

U.S. and European government bond yields on Thursday were mixed. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.7 bp at 3.981%.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-month high of 2.261% and finished up +2.5 bp at 2.236%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield matched a 4-week high at 3.852% and finished +2.3 bp at 3.842%. 

ECB President Lagarde said the ECB is likely at peak rates and can start cutting rates once data confirm inflation is on a path to the ECB's target.

Overseas stock markets on Thursday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.60%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.31%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index closed up +1.77%.

Today’s stock movers…

Paramount Global (PARA) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Redburn downgraded the stock to sell from neutral and said linear advertising is at a “negative tipping point.” 

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Redburn downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. 

Verizon Communications (VZ) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Doe Jones Industrials, and AT&T (T) closed down more than -3% after the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. regulators are seeking meetings with telecom companies related to lead-sheathed phone cables.   

Alliant Energy (LNT) closed down more than -3% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. 

Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -2% after it said it would boost pay for its U.S. factory workers, which may crimp the company’s margins. 

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) closed down more than -1% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $65.

Citigroup (C) closed down more than -1% after it said it would set aside a $1.3 billion reserve to cover debt risk in Argentina and Russia. 

KB Home (KBH) closed down more than -1% after forecasting full-year housing revenue of $6.40 billion-$6.80 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $6.63 billion. 

Netflix (NFLX) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Citic Securities initiated coverage of the stock with an add recommendation and a price target of $485. 

Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $300.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) closed up more than +2% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $85. 

TechTarget (TTGT) closed up more than +12% after Informa said it agreed to acquire a 57% stake in the company. 

ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +1% after Stifel raised its price target on the stock to $740 from $650. 

T Rowe Price Group (TROW) closed up more than +1% after reporting assets under management in December rose +14% y/y to $1.45 trillion.

ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +1% after Stifel raised its price target on the stock to $740 from $650. 

Across the markets…

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH24) on Thursday closed up +15 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield fell by -4.7 bp to 3.981%.  Mar T-notes Thursday rebounded from early losses and posted moderate gains.  Short covering emerged in T-notes on dovish comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin, who said he is open to lower interest rates once inflation falls to the Fed’s target.  Also, firm demand for the Treasury’s $21 billion 30-year T-bond auction gave T-notes a boost after the auction yield was slightly lower than expectations. 

T-note prices Thursday initially moved lower after U.S. Dec CPI rose more than expected and after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 month low.  Also, hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester weighed on T-notes when she said that March is probably "too early" for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates.  In addition, an increase in inflation expectations was bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate Thursday rose to a 4-week high of 2.256%. 

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