Thursday’s wheat market is set to begin the day session mixed but mostly lower, as thin Dec contracts are holding fractional gains while the more active futures are 1 ¾ to 4 ½ cents lower. Front month wheat futures were 1.7% to 4.4% higher on the day, led by the December HRW contract. Open interest in the Dec contracts, with Chicago falling 10,818 as the shoeboxes came out, leaving only 2,347 open on First Notice Day. At the close HRW futures were 16 ½ to 27 cents in the black. Front month spring wheat prices were 12 to 12 ¾ cents stronger. SRW futures closed 12 ¼ to 13 ¾ cents higher.
There were 100 contracts worth of delivery notices vs. KC December wheat, all by an SG Americas customer. There were 1,347 contracts put out (well over half of the remaining OI) against Chicago December, with LDC unburdening themselves of 1,130. Marex and JPM customers were the main stoppers.
The Minneapolis Grains Exchange reported wheat stocks were 20.474 mbu as of 11/26. That was 1.1% tighter than last year.
Pre-report Export Sales estimates for wheat run 200k MT to 500k MT for the week that ended 11/23.
SovEcon lowered their 24/25 wheat output projection by 1.7 MMT to 89.8 MMT citing declining conditions and lower farm margins. The number being put out by the Russian government is much higher.
Estimates going into the StatsCan Crop Production report show traders are looking for wheat output around 31.1 MMT, and between 29.3 and 32.3 MMT. Last year’s wheat production was 29.8 MMT, and USDA is currently using 31 MMT. By class, traders are looking for StatsCan to show 24 MMT for spring wheat and 4.1 for durum.
Eastern Australia has been pummeled by rain, hurting quality on the portion of the crop not yet harvested. Some estimates have 500,000 to 1 MMT likely to grade as feed quality. The rains are expected to be beneficial for cotton and sorghum, however.
Dec 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.56, up 12 1/4 cents, currently down 2 cents
Mar 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.85 3/4, up 13 3/4 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents
Cash SRW Wheat was $4.75 5/8, up 11 5/8 cents,
Mar 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.34 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents, currently down 2 1/4 cents
Cash HRW Wheat was $5.47 3/8, up 5 1/4 cents,
Mar 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.25 1/4, up 12 cents, currently up 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/A%20Palantir%20sign%20displayed%20on%20an%20office%20building%20by%20Poetra_RH%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)