Beans Rally on Thursday, Meal Left Behind

Soybean futures bounced by double digits on Thursday, with November closing above the $13 mark. January remains at a 24 cent carry, though the Nov/Nov spread widened to a 26c inverse on the day. Soymeal futures dropped on the day, closing $0.40 to $4.10 in the red across the front months. Soybean Oil futures ended up by 42 to 68 points with both the Dec and Jan contracts back above the 50 cents/lb mark.  

USDA reported 1.01 MMT of soybeans were sold during the week that ended 10/26. That was a 27% drop from the week prior, but was inline with expectations. The 1.99 MMT of weekly shipments brought the season total to 9.863 MMT, compared to 9.82 MMT last year. 

The FAS data showed soymeal export sales were 86k MT and soy oil bookings were 1,900 MT for the week that ended 10/26. Those were both below or at the low end of the expected range going in. 

The monthly NASS Fats and Oils report showed 174.75 mbu of soybeans were processed during the month of Sep. That was a 3.4% increase from August and was 4.3% above Sep ’22. The month’s soybean oil stockpile was 1.6 billion lbs, compared to 1.77b in August and 1.99b lbs in Sep ’22. 

Brazilian soybean exports totaled 5.53 MMT in October, a record for the month as the overhang of last year’s record crop continues to be shipped (and to depress US shipments because the customers don’t need them yet). Chinese Ag Ministry data showed 77.8 MMT of soybeans have been brought in through 2023, 14.4% more than the same time in 2022. They forecast a yearly total of 105 MMT, which would be up 15% from last year’s imports. 

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.04, up 12 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $12.64 5/8, up 15 3/8 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.28 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.42, up 13 1/4 cents,