Lean hog futures ended the Tuesday session red after Monday’s recovery. The October contract ended the session up by 10 cents, but the other active contracts gave back 17 to 50 cents. That has the board nearly back to UNCH for the week, with Dec up by 17 and April by just 10c. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price from Tuesday afternoon was 66 cents lower to $76.88. The CME Lean Hog Index from 9/22 was 37 cents weaker to $86.70.
Trade estimates are surfacing for Thursday’s USDA quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. The industry in general is expecting further downsizing of the hog herd, both breeding herd and market hogs, with the average of trade guesses we have seen so far down 1% for the former. If the All Hogs number is down 0.7% (the average estimate), that will be the fewest hogs since 2017.
Pork cutout futures also faded on Tuesday with $0.32 to $0.50 losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was 58 cents lower in the PM update for Tuesday, held down by a $7 loss in bellies. USDA estimates the FI hog slaughter for Tuesday at 956k head, bringing the week’s total to 956,000. That is down 13k from last week’s pace and trails the same week last year by 6k head.
Oct 23 Hogs closed at $81.625, up $0.100,
Dec 23 Hogs closed at $72.350, down $0.175
Oct 23 Pork Cutout closed at $92.250, down $0.500,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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