Corn Fades into Weekend

Friday’s corn trade ended with 1 ¼ to 2 ½ cent losses. That left the Dec contract at a net 2 ¼ cent gain for the week’s move. 

USDA’s weekly Ethanol report showed cash prices averaged $2.11 to $2.28/gal regionally, but were mostly 6 to 15 cents higher for the week. DDGS prices fluctuated regionally from -$5 to +$20/ton with average prices near $200; +/- $25/ton. The cash corn oil quotes were 66-69 cents/lb, mostly UNCH to 1c higher for the week. 

The weekly CFTC report had managed money closing longs and adding new shorts through the week that ended 9/5. That left their position at a net short of 93,913 contracts. The commercial traders were closing short hedges and adding long hedges for a 9,976 contract weaker net short of 93,506. 

Weekly Export Sales data showed the old crop corn business was a net 15k MT of cancelations. The weekly report had total 22/23 corn commitments at 40.58 MMT, or 1.598 bbu. The USDA forecast was for a 1.625 bbu export program. New crop export sales came in at the top end of estimates with 950k MT sold during the week that ended 8/31. Mexico was the week’s top buyer. Total forward commitments were 10.4 MMT as of 8/31, compared to 11.681 MMT to start the season last year. 

The weekly FAS data also had 59k MT of milo sold for the week, mostly to China. 

Analysts are looking for corn ending stocks to be 60.2 mbu tighter for new crop, but 2.6 mbu looser for old crop at 2.142 bbu and 1.459 bbu respectively. The survey respondents estimate USDA will publish a 173.5 bpa national average corn yield on Tuesday. That’d be a 1.6 bpa loss. The full range of estimates are from +0.2 to -4.1 bpa. That would set corn output ner 15.013 bbu. 

Sep 23 Corn  closed at $4.68 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $4.61, down 12 1/4 cents,

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $4.83 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $4.98, down 2 cents,