Wheat Rallies on Monday, with Crop Conditions Deteriorating

The wheat complex closed Monday with gains across all three markets. Chicago SRW was 10 ¾ 15 cents higher across the board on Monday. KC HRW futures were up 8 ½ to 12 ¼ cents at the close, with front month may up a penny. MPLS spring wheat were up 5 to 10 1/4 cents at the close. 

Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 53% planted, now 2 percentage points ahead of the pace from the last 5 years (51%). Emergence was pegged at 23%. The winter wheat crop was at 61% headed, which was 16 percentage points head of normal. Condition ratings were down 3% to 28% gd/ex, all shifting to very poor ratings. Brugler500 index was down 9 points to 277.

Monday morning’s Export Inspections report showed 511,436 MT (18.79 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week of 5/7. That was 1.78% above last week and 26.23% above the same week last year. South Korea was the largest destination of 111,630 MT, with 85,565 MT shipped to Mexico and 72,717 MT to Japan. The marketing year total is now 22.875 MMT (840.5 bbu) of wheat shipped since June 1, which is 12.58% above the same period last year.

Tuesday will see the release of the May WASDE, with old crop stocks down 8 mbu at 930 mbu according a Bloomberg survey. New crop data will also be released, with US stocks seen at 845 mbu and a range of 759 to 955 mbu. Crop Production data will be released, with analysts looking for 1.211 bbu of winter wheat production and all wheat estimated at 1.747 bbu. HRW is estimated at 638 mbu, with SRW at 337 mbu. 

May 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.22 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents,

Jul 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.34, up 15 cents,

May 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.73 1/2, up 18 3/4 cents,

Jul 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.86 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

May 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.78 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Jul 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.87 1/2, up 8 cents,