Stocks Rally on Tech Earnings and Hopes of a US-Iran Peace Deal

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.19%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.81%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.23%.

Stock indexes are soaring today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.  A wave of blockbuster earnings results from chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks is propelling stocks higher today and has bolstered optimism that the relentless pace of investment in artificial intelligence will continue.  Advanced Micro Devices is up more than +16% after data center spending boosted its full-year sales forecast, and Super Micro Computer is up more than +17% after reporting improved margins and giving a solid profit forecast.   

Stocks extended their gains as crude oil prices plunged and bond yields tumbled on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal.  The US believes it's close to an agreement with Iran to end the war, and President Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz and said, "Great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran."  He added that a US blockade of ships transiting to and from Iranian ports would "remain in full force and effect" until a deal is agreed to.  Crude prices fell to a 2-week low, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.33%

Axios reported that the US and Iran are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that, if Iran accepts it, will lead to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports. Nothing has yet been agreed upon, and detailed negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program will come later in the process. Also, China's top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, called for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Arachchi, in Beijing today.

Stocks maintained their gains on the Fed-friendly Apr ADP employment change report that showed US companies added 109,000 jobs, below expectations of 120,000.

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) plummeted more than -5% today to a 2-week low after Axios reported that the US believes it’s close to an agreement with Iran to end the nearly 10-week war.  The US sees Iran responding within 48 hours to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, which would include both sides lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.  The strait remains essentially closed, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Goldman Sachs estimates that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, with the drawdown potentially reaching 1 billion bbl by June.

The markets are discounting a 6% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Earnings results thus far this reporting season have been supportive of stocks.  As of today, 84% of the 375 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2.5-week high and is up sharply by +2.43%.  China's Shanghai Composite rallied to a 2-month high and closed up +1.17%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock Average did not trade, with markets in Japan closed for a National holiday.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +13 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -6.3 bp to 4.361%.  Jun T-notes rallied to a 1-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.331%.  T-notes are climbing today on the heels of a -5% plunge in crude oil prices to a 2-week low, which eases inflation expectations.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 2.417% today.  T-notes maintained their gains after the Apr ADP employment change came in below expectations, a dovish factor for Fed policy.

The US Treasury today said it will keep its quarterly refunding sales of government debt unchanged from last quarter at $125 billion and said it sees coupon issuance steady "at least the next several quarters.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German Bund yield fell to a 2-week low of 2.963% and is down -7.2 bp to 2.991%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.905% and is down -12.5 bp to 4.936%.

Eurozone Mar PPI rose +2.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of 1.8% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in a year.

The Eurozone Apr S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 48.8 from the previously reported 48.6. 

Swaps are discounting a 77% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on June 11.

US Stock Movers

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +16% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and lead chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks higher after reporting Q1 revenue of $10.25 billion, better than the consensus of $9.89 billion, and forecasting Q2 revenue of $10.90 billion to $11.50 billion, well above the consensus of $10.52 billion.  Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +17% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q4 net sales of $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion, the midpoint well above the consensus of $11.16 billion.  Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +10%, and Lam Research (LRCX) is up more than +7%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +4%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +3%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are climbing today, with WTI crude oil sinking more than -5% to a 2-week low, which lowers fuel costs and boosts the profitability prospects for the companies.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are up more than +5%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +4%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +3%.

Mining stocks are rallying today with gold, silver, and copper prices surging.  Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +10%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) are up more th +7%.  Also, Southern Copper (SCCO) and Barrick Mining (B) are up more than +5%, and Newmont Corp (NEM) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are up more than +4%. 

Energy producers and service providers are retreating today, with crude oil prices tumbling more than -5% to a 2-week low.  Devon Energy (DVN) is down more than -6%, and APA Corp (APA) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -5%.  Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are down more than -4%, and Chevron (CVX) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are down more than -3%.

Flex Ltd (FLEX) is up more than +31% after reporting Q4 net sales of $7.48 billion, better than the consensus of $6.94 billion, and forecasting 2027 revenue of $32.3 billion to $33.8 billion, well above the consensus of $29.15 billion. 

DaVita (DVA) is up more than +17% after reporting Q1 total revenue of $3.42 billion, better than the consensus of $3.34 billion and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations of $14.10 to $15.20, the midpoint well above the consensus of $14.11.

CVS Health (CVS) is up more than +9% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $7.30 to $7.50 from a prior forecast of $7.00 to $7.20, stronger than the consensus of $7.12. 

Uber Technologies (UBER) is up more than +6% after reporting Q2 gross bookings of $53.72 billion, above the consensus of $52.92 billion. 

Oscar Health (OSCR) is up more than +2% after reporting Q1 adjusted Ebitda of $727.1 million, well above the consensus of $435.7 million. 

Primoris Services (PRIM) is down more than -43% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.56 billion, well below the consensus of $1.73 billion. 

TransMedics Group (TMDX) is down more than -20% after reporting Q1 adjusted diluted earnings per share of 30 cents, well below the consensus of 59 cents. 

CDW Corp (CDW) is down more than -19% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.28, weaker than the consensus of $2.30. 

Coupang (CPNG) is down more than -11% after reporting a Q1 gross profit margin of 27%, below the consensus of 27.9%. 

Earnings Reports(5/6/2026)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Amcor PLC (AMCR), APA Corp (APA), Apollo Global Management Inc (APO), AppLovin Corp (APP), Atmos Energy Corp (ATO), Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON), Bio-Techne Corp (TECH), CDW Corp/DE (CDW), Cencora Inc (COR), CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF), Coherent Corp (COHR), CVS Health Corp (CVS), DoorDash Inc (DASH), Eversource Energy (ES), Exelon Corp (EXC), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Global Payments Inc (GPN), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Insulet Corp (PODD), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR), MetLife Inc (MET), NiSource Inc (NI), NRG Energy Inc (NRG), PTC Inc (PTC), Realty Income Corp (O), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Trimble Inc (TRMB), Uber Technologies Inc (UBER), Walt Disney Co/The (DIS), Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD).