Tech Earnings Optimism Powers Stocks Higher

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.01%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.14%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -0.02%.

Stock indexes settled mostly higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.  Optimism that demand for AI-infrastructure will remain strong and continue to power technology earnings boosted stocks on Monday.  The megacap technology stocks of Alphabet, Apple, Amazon.com, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all report quarterly earnings this week. 

The broader market saw some downward pressure from Monday’s +2% rally in WTI crude oil prices, which raised inflation expectations.  Crude oil prices jumped after President Trump on Saturday canceled planned negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, saying Iran "offered a lot, but not enough" to continue negotiations.  Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran won't enter "imposed negotiations under threats or blockade." Secretary of State Rubio said Iran still wants to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that was "unacceptable" to the US.

However, AI-infrastructure stocks found support on Monday after TF International Securities said that Qualcomm is working with OpenAI and Taiwan’s MediaTek to develop smartphone processors.  Also, Micron Technology and SanDisk both received buy ratings from Melius Research.  In addition, strength in health insurers was a positive factor for the market.

Stock indexes found support from the Axios report that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, which includes postponing nuclear negotiations.  The plan calls for extending the ceasefire so the parties can work toward a permanent end to the war, and nuclear talks would come later, only after a US blockade of the strait is lifted.  The White House said Monday afternoon that President Trump is discussing the proposal with national security and foreign policy officials.

The US and Iran are locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides blocking the waterway to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire.  The US increased pressure on Iran with its naval blockade as it seeks to get Iran to agree to talks, while Israel and Lebanon are set to extend a ceasefire for three weeks. 

WTI crude oil prices (CLM26) rose by more than +2% on Monday after President Trump canceled a planned weekend trip by US envoys to Pakistan and Iran said it won’t negotiate while the US naval blockade of Iran remains in force.  The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis.  The ongoing blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, or more than 50%, so far in April, and that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June.

Kevin Warsh now appears to be on a glide path toward Senate approval as the new Fed Chair after Senator Thom Tillis said on Sunday that he dropped his opposition to the nomination.  Mr. Tillis dropped his opposition after the US Justice Department dropped its criminal investigation into the Fed’s overspending on the renovation of its building, in line with Mr. Tillis’ demand.  Mr. Tillis views the investigation into Fed Chair Powell as an attempt to force the Fed to cut interest rates.  The Senate Banking Committee is due to vote on Mr. Warsh’s appointment this Wednesday and then send the nomination to the full Senate for a vote.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the Tue-Wed policy meeting.  The markets are expecting the FOMC to leave policy unchanged this week as it awaits further developments in oil prices and inflation.

Earnings season ramps up this week with several Magnificent Seven technology stocks reporting.  Earnings results thus far have been supportive of stocks.  As of Monday, 80% of the 139 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Monday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.39%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.16%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new record high and closed up +1.38%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Monday closed down -6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +3.6 bp to 4.337%.  June T-notes retreated on Monday due to the +2% increase in the price of WTI crude oil, which boosts inflation expectations.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 14-month high of 2.457% on Monday. Supply pressures also weighed on T-note prices, as the Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes. 

Demand for Monday’s Treasury auctions was mixed.  The 2-year T-note auction saw decent demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65, above the 10-auction average of 2.60, while demand for the 5-year T-note auction was tepid, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.33, below the 10-auction average of 2.35. 

European government bond yields moved higher on Monday.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +3.9 bp to 3.033%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +6.0 bp to 4.972%.

The German May GfK consumer confidence index fell -5.2 to a 3.25-year low of -33.3, weaker than expectations of -30.0.

Swaps are discounting a 6% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday.

US Stock Movers

Health insurance stocks rallied on Monday to provide support to the overall market.  Centene (CNC) closed up more than +4%, and Elevance Health (ELV) and Humana (HUM) closed up more than +3%.  Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and the Cigna Group (CI) closed up more than +2%, and Cardinal Health (CAH) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed up more than +1%.

Airline stocks and cruise line operators fell on Monday after WTI crude oil rose more than +2%, which raises fuel costs and weighs on corporate profits.  American Airlines Group (AAL) closed down more than -3%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed down more than -2%.  Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) closed down more than -1%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed down -0.37%.

Chipmakers moved lower on Monday, weighing on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -3%.  In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -2%, and Analog Devices (ADI) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed down more than -1%.

Sandisk (SNDK) closed up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +5% after Melius Research LLC initiated coverage on the stocks with buy recommendations. 

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed up more than +4% after its board authorized a $500 million stock buyback program.

Verizon Communications (VZ) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $4.95-$4.99 from a previous forecast of $4.90-$4.95, stronger than the consensus of $4.90.

Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1% after Arete double-upgraded the stock to buy from sell with a price target of $104.

Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $520.

VeraDermics (MANE) closed up more than +46% after reporting that its oral extended-release minoxidil formulation VDPHL01 met all primary and key secondary endpoints with high statistical significance in a Phase 2/3 clinical trial for male pattern baldness.

Organon & Co. (OGN) closed up more than +16% after Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. had lined up a short-term loan to finance its $12 billion acquisition of the company. 

Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) closed up more than +10% after giving positive results from a mid-stage trial of its therapy to treat plaque psoriasis. 

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.15 billion, below the consensus of $1.16 billion.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed down more than -2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.   

Adobe (ADBE) closed down more than -2% after Mizuho Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform. 

Earnings Reports(4/28/2026)

Allegion plc (ALLE), American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Avery Dennison Corp (AVY), Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Centene Corp (CNC), CMS Energy Corp (CMS), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Corning Inc (GLW), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Edison International (EIX), Equity Residential (EQR), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Franklin Resources Inc (BEN), General Motors Co (GM), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Incyte Corp (INCY), Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR), Invesco Ltd (IVZ), Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), ONEOK Inc (OKE), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pentair PLC (PNR), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD), S&P Global Inc (SPGI), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Sherwin-Williams Co/The (SHW), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (TER), T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), Veralto Corp (VLTO), Visa Inc (V), Waste Management Inc (WM), Welltower Inc (WELL), Xylem Inc/NY (XYL), Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc (ZBH).