Stocks Erase Early Gains as Crude Prices Jump on Iran Concerns

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.02%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.13%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.05%.

Stock indexes gave up an early advance and turned mixed today as WTI crude oil rebounded from early losses, jumping more than +2%, amid market speculation about whether Iran will take part in a second round of talks before a ceasefire expires on Wednesday. 

Stocks initially moved higher today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new record high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a 2-month high. Iran initially said it was sending a team to Pakistan for the negotiations, though it wasn’t clear who would be on the team or when they would arrive.  President Trump said Vice President Vance would resume negotiations in person, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,” and it's "highly unlikely" he will extend the ceasefire with Iran after Wednesday’s deadline.

Some positive Q1 earnings results from UnitedHealth Group and General Electric are also supporting stock gains.  In addition, today’s stronger-than-expected US economic reports on March retail sales and March pending home sales suggest that consumer spending is holding up, a supportive factor for stocks. 

March retail sales rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m and the biggest increase in a year.  Also, March retail sales ex-autos rose +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years.

US Mar pending home sales rose +1.5%, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

Market attention will be on Capitol Hill today as Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for a confirmation hearing for his nomination as the new Fed Chair.  Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Banking Committee, has said he won’t vote for Warsh until the Department of Justice (DOJ) ends its investigation into a building renovation project at the Fed, which current Fed Chair Powell has said is really a political attack on the Fed over interest rates.  Tillis can block Warsh’s nomination from advancing to the full Senate, and neither President Trump nor the DOJ has shown any sign they will close the investigation.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) recovered from early losses today and are up more than +2% as Iran has yet to confirm its attendance in Pakistan for peace talks with the US before a ceasefire expires on Wednesday.  The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis.  The Wall Street Journal reported that the US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters in the coming days to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has recently been able to export crude oil during the war, with exports of about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season continues this week.  So far, 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.87%.  China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 1-month high and closed up +0.07%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.89%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -11 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.9 bp to 4.290%.  T-notes are sliding today on stronger-than-expected US economic reports on Mar retail sales and Mar pending home sales.  T-notes added to their losses today after WTI crude oil recovered from early losses and rallied by more than +2%, which lifted inflation expectations and is bearish for T-note prices.

T-notes have support on signs that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will support an independent Fed and prioritize low inflation.  Fed Chair nominee Warsh's prepared statement before the Senate Banking Committee said he is committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains "strictly independent" and to keeping inflation in check, saying price stability is a mandate for the Fed "without excuse or equivocation."   

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.6 bp to 2.996%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.868%.

The German Apr ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -16.7 to a 3.25-year low of -17.2, weaker than expectations of -5.8.

Swaps are discounting a 9% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +7% to lead health insurance stocks higher after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $9.23, well above the consensus of $6.57, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to above $18.25 from a previous view of $17.75.  Humana (HUM) is also up more than +5% on the news, Centene (CNC) and Elevance Health (ELV) are up more than +2%, and CVS Health (CVS) is up +1%. 

Cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today, lending support to the broader market.  Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is up more than +4%, and Okta (OKTA) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are up more than +3%.  In addition, Fortinet (FTNT) is up more than +2%, and Cloudflare (NET) is up more than +1%.

Software stocks are stronger today, a positive factor for the overall market.  Atlassian (TEAM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) are up more than +3%. Also, Workday (WDAY), Salesforce (CRM), Intuit (INTU), Datadog (DDOG), and Oracle (ORCL) are up more than +2%. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK) and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +1%.

Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than 1% after it said it is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time.  Amazon’s suppliers are also climbing on the news, with Astera Labs (ALAB) up more than +7%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Credo Technology (CRDO) are up more than +1%. 

Avis Budget Group (CAR) is up more than +9% amid a short squeeze as two investors, SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital Management, own about 71% of the company’s shares.  According to S3 Partners data, the company's short interest as a percentage of its free float is currently 62%.

D.R. Horton (DHI) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net sales orders of 24,992, better than the consensus of 23,919, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $34.5 billion from a previous estimate of $33.5 billion to $35.0 billion, stronger than the consensus of $33.4 billion.

Northern Trust (NTRS) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 net interest income FTE of $661.6 million, above the consensus of $627.6 million.

Quest Diagnostics (DGX) is up more than +4% after reporting Q1 net revenue of $2.90 billion, better than the consensus of $2.82 billion.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $100. 

Intel (INTC) is up more than +1% after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $95.

Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 net sales of $3.59 billion, below the consensus of $3.64 billion. 

Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down more than -6% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $27.40 to $27.90, below the consensus of $27.97.

Merk & Co (MRK) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after its Phase 3 trial with Eisai for treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma did not meet its dual primary endpoints. 

Prudential Financial (PRU) is down more than -4% after Nikkei reported that former employees of the company’s Gibraltar business are suspected of committing dozens of cases of financial fraud. 

Alaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -4% after forecasting a Q2 adjusted loss per share of -$1.00, much wider than the consensus of -11 cents, and announcing that it will suspend full-year guidance due to higher fuel costs.

Earnings Reports(4/21/2026)

3M Co (MMM), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Danaher Corp (DHR), DR Horton Inc (DHI), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), W R Berkley Corp (WRB).