Stocks Retreat on Middle East Peace Doubts

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.24%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.18%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.20%.

Stock indexes are trading lower as crude oil prices soar due to doubts about the prospects for peace talks to end the Iran war.  Iran on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz was closed for shipping following a refusal by the US to lift a naval blockade of Iran's vessels.  The UK reported Saturday that a tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats off the coast of Oman before being fired at, and an unknown projectile hit a container ship in a separate incident.  India also said some of its ships were fired upon.  A US-Iran ceasefire is due to expire at the end of Tuesday, and it’s unclear whether that truce will be extended, or whether talks between US and Iranian officials will go ahead this week.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) are up more than +5% today after the US Navy over the weekend fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, the first seizure in the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  The Wall Street Journal reported that the US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters in the coming days to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has recently been able to export crude oil during the war, with exports of about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season continues this week.  So far, 81% of the 48 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have beaten estimates.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.17%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-month high and closed up +0.76%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.60%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.4 bp to 4.262%.  June T-notes are under pressure today from rising oil prices.  WTI crude is up more than +5% today, boosting inflation expectations, a bearish factor for T-notes. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.8 bp to 2.988%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +5.0 bp to 4.812%.

German Mar PPI rose +2.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 3.5 years.

Swaps are discounting an 8% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving lower today, with WTI crude prices up by more than +5%, which boosts fuel costs and weighs on company profits.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and American Airlines Group (AAL) is down more than -3%.  Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down more than -2%.  In addition, Alaska Air Group (ALK), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Carnival (CCL) are down more than -1%.

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, a negative factor for the broader market.  Intel (INTC) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Broadcom (AVGO), Western Digital (WDC), and Lam Research (LRCX) are down more than -1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%.  MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -3%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -2%.  Also, Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -1%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down -0.61%. 

Software stocks are moving higher today.  Atlassian (TEAM) is up more than +5%, and ServiceNow (NOW) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, Intuit (INTU),  Adobe Systems (ADBE), and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +2%, and Datadog (DDOG) and Autodesk (ADSK) are up more than +1%.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down more than -10% after the company’s New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place a satellite into its planned orbit. 

Janux Therapeutics (JANX) is down more than -1% after Barclays downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $14. 

Avis Budget Group (CAR) is down more than -1% after Barclays downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $150. 

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) is down more than -0.80% after Mizuho Securities downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $46. 

TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is up more than +16% after QXO Inc. said it is acquiring the company for $17 billion, or $505 per share. 

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after “The Information” reported that Google is in discussions with the company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. 

Okta Inc (OKTA) is up more than +4% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $90.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after saying it does not expect the recent changes to the Section 232 tariff rules to have a material impact on its full-year guidance.

Air Products and Chemicals (APD) is up more than +1% after Berenberg upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $350. 

Earnings Reports(4/20/2026)

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), BOK Financial Corp (BOKF), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), Wintrust Financial Corp (WTFC), Zions Bancorp NA (ZION).