Stocks Climb on US-Iran Peace Talk Optimism and a Favorable PPI Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.76%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.49%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.76%.

Stock indexes are higher today on hopes that the US and Iran will extend the two-week ceasefire.  Reuters reported today that the US and Iran are considering negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire that expires on April 22, and that they could resume talks this week in Pakistan.  There are also reports that Iran might pause shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid sparking an incident with the US military.  The news knocked crude oil prices down by more than -3%.

The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.  Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened.

The stock market saw support after today’s US March PPI report of +0.5% m/m and +4.0% y/y was weaker than market expectations of +1.1% m/m and +4.6% y/y.  The March core PPI report of +0.1% m/m and +3.8% y/y was weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y.  The report suggested that higher fuel prices are only slowly filtering into US inflation statistics.

A positive factor for the stock market is that the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing next week on Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott said he is optimistic that the Trump administration will soon drop its investigation into Fed Chair Powell, allowing Senator Thom Tillis to vote in favor of approving Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair and moving his nomination out of the Senate Banking Committee and to the full Senate for a vote.  Mr. Tillis has said he will not vote in favor of Mr. Warsh until the Trump administration drops its threat to prosecute Fed Chair Powell for cost overruns on the Fed building.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) are down by more than -3% today on hopes the US and Iran will resume negotiations to end the war.  On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or were headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season begins this week as money center banks report, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around 3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 6-week high and is up by +1.15%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3.5-week high and closed up +0.95%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 6-week high and closed up +2.43%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -1.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.2 bp at 4.295%.  T-notes are trading slightly lower despite support from hopes for an end to the US-Iran war, which knocked WTI crude oil prices down by more than -3% and eased inflation expectations.  T-note prices are also seeing support from today’s favorable PPI report.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.2 bp to 3.060%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.9 bp to 4.830%.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said faster inflation due to the Iran war doesn't make an interest rate hike "self-evident."

Swaps are discounting a 33% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven are all trading higher, led by gains of more than +2% in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft  (MSFT), and Meta (META).

Globalstar (GSAT) is up more than +9% on reports that Amazon.com is in advanced talks to acquire the company. 

Citigroup (C) is up more than +1% after reporting Q1 investment banking revenue of $1.33 billion, better than the consensus of $1.25 billion.

Blackrock (BLK) is up +4% after better-than-expected Q1 adjusted earnings, while assets under management were in line with the consensus.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) is down more than -2% after reporting Q1 net interest income of $12.10 billion, below the consensus of $12.27 billion. 

Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -4%, and HP Inc. (HPQ) is down more than -2% after Nvidia denied a report that it was seeking to acquire one or both of the companies. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with the price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising nearly +2% and posting a 1-month high.  Riot Platforms (RIOT), Strategy (MSTR), Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are all up more than +6%. 

American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +6% after United Airlines Holdings CEO Kirby floated a possible combination with the company.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up +0.6%.

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) is up more than +30% after the US FDA approved the company’s Filspari medication to reduce proteinuria in patients 8 years and older with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis without nephrotic syndrome. 

Bloom Energy (BE) is up more than +15% after expanding its partnership with Oracle to support the buildout of AI and cloud computing infrastructure.

Lucid Group (LCID) is up more than +3% after it announced a $200 million investment from Uber Technologies and a $550 million commitment from a Public Investment Fund affiliate in convertible preferred shares.

CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +6% after Bernstein raised its price target on the stock to $67 from $56. 

CarMax (KMX) is down more than -13% after reporting a Q1 loss per share of -85 cents versus a profit of +58 cents in the year-ago period. 

Earnings Reports(4/14/2026)

Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Blackrock Inc (BLK), CarMax Inc (KMX), Citigroup Inc (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC).