Stocks Under Some Pressure as Optimism Fades Over US-Iran Ceasefire

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.18%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.08%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.20%.

Stock indexes are moving lower today, giving back some of Wednesday’s sharp gains, as optimism fades over the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire.  Crude oil prices jumped more than +5% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threaten to derail the fragile ceasefire. The US and Iran both accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with a key disagreement over whether the truce extends to Lebanon.  President Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of Saturday’s talks with Iran, while Iran warned there may be mines in the strait.   

Stocks remained lower on weaker-than-expected US economic news, including Q4 GDP, Feb personal income and spending, and weekly jobless claims.

US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +16,000 to an 8-week high of 219,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 210,000.

US Feb personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m.  Feb personal income unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the first decline in nine months.

The US Feb core PCE price index rose +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y, right on expectations.

US Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.5% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of no change at +0.7%, as Q4 personal consumption was revised lower to +1.9% from the previously reported +2.0%.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran.  Crude prices are up by more than +5% today as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Iran still restricting access and preventing energy flows to global markets.  Iran’s deputy foreign minister said today that oil tankers and other vessels seeking to transit the strait must communicate with Iranian authorities to ensure their safe passage.  There are more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 vessels waiting on both sides of the strait to transit.  Before the war, the average daily volume of ships transiting through the strait was about 135.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.68%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.72%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.73%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down -1 tick.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.4 bp to 4.295%.   T-notes are under pressure today after a +5% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which has boosted inflation expectations and is hawkish for Fed policy.  Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later today.

T-note prices have support today from weaker-than-expected US economic news.  Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised downward, Feb personal income and spending came in lower than expected, and weekly jobless claims rose to an 8-week high. 

European government bond yields are higher.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +5.8 bp to 3.002%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +8.2 bp to 4.793%.

German Feb industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.7% m/m increase.

German trade news was better than expected after German Feb exports rose +3.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.3% m/m and the biggest increase in 3.75 years.  Feb imports rose +4.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +3.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 2.75 years.

Swaps are discounting a 38% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are under pressure today after Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents and Meta Platforms unveiled a new artificial intelligence model.  Atlassian (TEAM) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -4%.  Also, Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Adobe (ADBE), Autodesk (ADSK), ServiceNow (NOW), Workday (WDAY), and Intuit (INTU) are down more than -3%. 

Zscaler (ZS) is down more than -7% to lead the Nasdaq 100 losers, and cybersecurity stocks are lower after BTIG LLC downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.  Also, Okta (OKTA) is down more than -3%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Cloudflare (NET) are down more than -2%.  In addition, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) are down more than -1%.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks higher after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $150.  Also, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +1%. 

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is down more than -24% after reporting Q2 net sales of $326.0 million, weaker than the consensus of $344.4 million, and forecasting full-year net sales down -7% to -10% to $1.31 billion and $1.35 billion. 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -1% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $77.

Whitestone REIT (WSR) is up more than +11% after entering into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $1.7 billion, or about $19 per share.

Constellation Brands (STZ) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 comparable net sales of $1.92 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.88 billion. 

CoreWeave (CRWV) is up more than +3% after striking a $21 billion deal to supply AI cloud capacity to Meta Platforms through 2032.

Earnings Reports(4/9/2026)

Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN), Lifezone Metals Ltd (LZM), MainStreet Bancshares Inc (MNSB), Neogen Corp (NEOG), PTC Inc (PTC), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc (RICK), Simply Good Foods Co/The (SMPL), Simulations Plus Inc (SLP), WD-40 Co (WDFC).