Soy Oil Losses Dragging on Beans

Thursday soy trade has the board working sharply lower. Soybean prices are 2.2% to 2.9% in the red with double digit drops of as much as 43 cents. Soybean oil is leading the way lower with 6.4% to 7.6% losses thus far through midday. Meal prices are also red, though firmer on 0.17% to 0.5% losses. 

The EPA boosted required biofuel use to 20.82b gallons of renewable fuels for 2023, of which 5.82 billion would be advanced biofuels (mostly from soy oil). The prior requirement was 20.63b gallons, so the 2023 number is just a ~1% increase. ASA and other farm groups are disappointed by the minimal increases, as well as some loopholes in RIN creation. 

Weekly Export Sales from the week that ended 11/24 were confirmed at 693,838 MT. Analysts were expecting to see at least 550k MT. China was the top buyer, with 110k MT previously announced. China was also the destination for over half (71%) of the week’s export, which was 2.1 MMT to all destinations. The accumulated soybean export reached 19 MMT (700.5 mbu) through 11/24.

FAS data had soymeal sales at 185k MT, compared to 516k MT last week and  150 – 500k MT expected. Accumulated soymeal exports were 1.494 MMT through 11/24, trailing last year by 19.3%. In BO the weekly report showed 2,306 MT of net cancelations, compared to pre-report estimates of 0-20k MT. Soy oil exports were at 11,474 MT for the season through 11/24 – trailing last year by 78%. 

Analysts estimate the NASS Fats and Oils report on Thursday afternoon will show 195.9 mbu (a 10-mo high) of soybeans were processed during October. The full range of estimates is from 194 to 197.1 mbu. Soy oil stocks are expected to be 2.107b lbs. 

Jan 23 Soybeans  are at $14.26 1/2, down 43 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.04, down 42 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $14.33 1/2, down 42 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $14.41, down 41 3/4 cents,