Stocks Pare Losses on Hormuz Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.20%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.04%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.14%.

Stock indexes are under pressure today as the price of crude oil soars more than +8% after President Trump dashed hopes for a quick end to the war with Iran.   During a speech to the American public on Wednesday evening, Mr. Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran over the next two to three weeks and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  WTI crude oil prices are up by more than 8% today, at a 3.5-week high, fueling inflation fears.

However, stocks recovered from their worst levels as short covering emerged on a report from Iran’s state-run IRNA that said Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, citing Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibaldi.  Also, today’s US economic news was better than expected and supportive of stocks.  Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by -9,000 to a 2.5-month low of 202,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 212,000.  Also, the Feb trade deficit was -$57.3 billion, narrower than expectations of -$60.6 billion.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) are surging by more than +8% today as the Iran war looks set to drag on and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.  The UAE is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force and is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing such action.  The International Energy Agency warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and is facing lengthy repairs.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.85%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.74%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a 2-week high and closed down sharply by -2.38%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down by -2.6 bp to 4.293%.  June T-notes recovered from early losses and moved higher today as a sell-off in equity markets boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Also, T-notes are finding support on concerns that soaring energy prices will derail the global economy and may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates. 

T-notes today initially moved lower as a surge in crude oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher.  WTI crude is up more than +8% at a 3.5-week high, pushing the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to a 1-week high of 2.361% today.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.1 bp to 2.984%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.0 bp to 4.820%.

Swaps are discounting a 47% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks are retreating today, weighing on the broader market.  ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -2%.  In addition, Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm (QCOM), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -1%. 

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are moving sharply lower today as crude oil prices surge more than +8%, raising fuel costs and cutting into corporate profits.  American Airlines Group (AAL), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -4%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are down more than -3%.  Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -2%. 

Energy producers and energy service providers are rallying today as WTI crude oil soars by more than +8%. Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up more than +2%, and APA Corp (APA), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), and Devon Energy (DVN) are up more than +1%. 

Alto Neuroscience (ANRO) is down more than -3% after its ALTO-101 to treat cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia failed to achieve statistical significance versus placebo in a Phase 2 trial. 

Estee Lauder (EL) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after saying it’s advancing in negotiations to combine with Puig Brands SA.

Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -3% after reporting Q1 vehicle deliveries of 358,023, below the consensus of 372,160.

Nike (NKE) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrial, extending Wednesday’s -15% plunge after forecasting Q4 revenue to be down -2% to -4% and saying its turnaround efforts are taking longer than originally planned. 

Globalstar (GSAT) is up more than +9% after the Financial Times reported that Amazon.com is in talks to acquire the company.

Wingstop (WING) is up more than +6% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to strong buy from outperform with a price target of $240. 

SM Energy (SM) is up more than +4% after BMO Capital Markets raised its price target on the stock to $33 from $26. 

Intel (INTC) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after D.A. Davidson said Intel’s action to pay $14.2 billion to buy back half of its plant in Ireland bodes well for the company’s turnaround story. 

Matador Resources (MTDR) is up more than +3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its price target on the stock to $73 from $61. 

Earnings Reports(4/2/2026)

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