Overnight Soybeans +$14, Fading into Day Session

Overnight soy action had the board working higher with Nov getting up to $14.10/bu, but into the Friday day session prices are back near break even. Soymeal futures cooled off today after the sharp rally on report day. Losses in the front months were limited to $3.30/ton. Beans and soy oil futures continued higher on Thursday, with front month soybean prices ending the day fractionally to 5 1/2 cents higher. November contracts were the outlier and closed half a penny weaker. BO gains were 1.2% on the day, pushing the thin and in-delivery October contract to back above 70 cents – levels not seen (prior to Friday) since June. 

USDA, citing Ministerio de Agricultura Compras y DJVE data, showed Argentina’s 200 pesos/dollar guaranteed exchange rate for soybeans (from the 139 peso/dollar official rate at the time of the policy) lifted their soybean export sales from just over 50% of the crop to just under 20% of the crop. At 16 MMT, that was the largest September volume in recent years, though at 70%, export sales are still below 17/18 and 18/19’s pace. 

Indonesia shipped 4.04 MMT of palm oil in August according to Intertek. That was up from 2.41 MMT in July, mostly to India and China. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report (to be issued tomorrow due to the Monday holiday) analysts expect between 600k and 1.4 MMT of soybeans were sold. Meal bookings range from net 50k MT to 300k MT for both 21/22 and 22/23. Total BO sales are expected between 10k MT of cancelations and 20k MT of net new business. 

USDA announced two private export sales this morning, with a 264k MT soybean sale to China and a 242k MT sale to unknown destinations. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.95 3/4, down 1/4 cent, currently up 3/4 cent

Nearby Cash   was $13.46 1/8, down 1/8 cent,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.05 1/2, up 1/2 cent, currently up 3/4 cent

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.13 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently up 1 3/4 cents