Markets Turn Negative as Crude Oil Prices Surge

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.18%.  

Stock indexes turned lower this afternoon as the market digests the first $100+ oil settlement since 2022, a milestone reached as supply-chain risks continue to dominate the energy sector.

Treasury Yields retreated after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that while the central bank is tracking the recent surge in energy costs, its tools for addressing such supply-side shocks remain restricted.

The US Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey fell by -0.4 to -0.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.0.

US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran today, while the UAE issued multiple alerts and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported numerous strikes by Iranian drones and missiles as the war in Iran enters its fifth week.  The Washington Post said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as about 3,500 sailors and Marines have arrived in the Middle East. President Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, which would involve US ground troops and mark a major escalation of the conflict.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) are up more than +2% today at a 3-week high.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. 

The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.28%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.24%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -2.79%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +24 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -9.7 bp to 4.330%.  June T-notes are climbing today on speculation that the ongoing war in the Middle East will lead to a fuel shortage that derails global economic growth, offsetting inflation fears and possibly keeping the Fed from raising interest rates.  Also, sliding inflation expectations are supportive of T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 3-week low of 2.295% today.  T-notes added to their gains today after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are well anchored and the FOMC will reach its 2% inflation goals.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -5.5 bp to 3.039%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.6 bp to 4.928%.

The Eurozone Mar economic sentiment index fell -1.6 to a 6-month low of 96.6, weaker than expectations of 96.7.

German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) rose +1.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, right on expectations, with the +2.8% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in two years.

Swaps are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Software stocks are rebounding today after last Friday’s plunge.  ServiceNow (NOW) is up more than +4%, and Atlassian (TEAM) and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +3%. Also, Datadog (DDOG), Adobe (ADBE), and Autodesk (ADSK) are up more than +2%.  In addition, Intuit (INTU) and Salesforce (CRM) are up more than +1%.

Cybersecurity stocks are rallying today, recovering some of last Friday’s slide.  Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Okta (OKTA), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), and Zscaler (ZS) are up more than +4%. In addition, Fortinet (FTNT) is up more than +2%. 

Aluminum stocks are climbing today following Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum facilities.  Alcoa (AA) is up more than +11%, and Century Aluminum (CENX) is up more than +9%.  Also, Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) and Constellium SE (CSTM) are up more than +3%.

Weakness in chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks is limiting gains in the broader market.  Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) are down more than -5%.  Also, Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -4%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) and Intel (INTC) are down more than -3%.  In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -2%.

United Therapeutics (UTHR) is up more than +13% after announcing that its study of Tyvasco to treat idiopathic fibrosis met its primary endpoint, demonstrating superiority over placebo. 

Insmed Inc. (INSM) is up more than +5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $212. 

TKO Group Holdings (TKO) is up more than +4% after Citizens initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of market outperform and a price target of $240.

Biogen (BIIB) is up more than +2% after the FDA approved a high-dose version of its Spinraza drug for spinal muscular atrophy,

Expedia Group (EXPE) is up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $300. 

Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) is down more than -31% after giving efficacy data from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for thyroid eye disease of 36%/45% placebo-adjusted proptosis response, well below expectations of 50%+.

Sysco (SYY) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after agreeing to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion, including debt. 

Boston Scientific (BSX) is down more than -8% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to outperform from strong buy.

Earnings Reports(3/30/2026)

AirJoule Technologies Corp (AIRJ), AIRO Group Holdings Inc (AIRO), Arrive AI Inc (ARAI), Arrow Financial Corp (AROW), Bicara Therapeutics Inc (BCAX), DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc (DMAC), Fermi Inc (FRMI), HireQuest Inc (HQI), Inmune Bio Inc (INMB), Innventure Inc (INV), Phreesia Inc (PHR), Progress Software Corp (PRGS), Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV), Riverview Bancorp Inc (RVSB), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR), TuHURA Biosciences Inc (HURA), Zspace Inc (ZSPC).