Stocks Plunge on an Upside Surprise in U.S. Consumer Prices

Morning Markets

September S&P 500 futures (ESU22) this morning fell back from a 2-week high and are down sharply by -1.64%.  U.S. stock indexes gave up overnight gains and plunged after U.S. August consumer prices rose more than expected.  The stronger than expected CPI report will likely keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates by 75 bp at next week’s FOMC meeting.  The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 2-3/4 month high of 3.433% after the Aug CPI report.

U.S. stock indexes today initially moved higher in overnight trading on optimism that the worst of the inflation news was behind us.  JPMorgan Chase said today that they "maintain a pro-risk stance" as a soft landing is becoming the more likely scenario for the global economy. They added that recent data pointing to moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth, and stabilizing consumer confidence suggest the world will avoid recession.

U.S. Aug CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +8.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +8.1% y/y. U.S. Aug CPI ex-food & energy rose +0.6% m/m and +6.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +6.1% y/y. Still, today’s Aug CPI report of +8.3% y/y remained below June’s 40-year peak of +9.1%, and today’s core CPI report of +6.3% y/y remained below March’s 40-year peak of +6.5% y/y.

The Euro Stoxx 50 today is down -0.36%.  European stocks fell back from a 2-week high and posted moderate losses after U.S. August consumer prices rose more than expected, which may cement a 75 bp rate hike by the Fed next week.  European stocks also fell back after a gauge of German investor confidence fell more than expected to a nearly 14-year low.  Positive corporate news today initially pushed European stocks higher when UBS Group AG rallied more than +2% after raising its dividend and share buyback target.

The German Sep ZEW expectations of economic growth index fell -6.6 to a 14-year low of -61.9, weaker than expectations of -59.5.

Asian markets today closed higher.  China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.05%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index closed up +1.16%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed to a 2-1/2 week high today on signs the Chinese government may boost stimulus measures. The Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang called for efforts to solve the “key problem of insufficient demand” in the economy and boost consumption as a main growth driver. Li added that China “will adopt multiple measures to stabilize growth, employment, and prices.” 

Chinese stocks gave up most of their gains on signs of weak consumer spending after the latest figures showed a plunge in travel and spending over the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday weekend due to tighter Covid controls. Tourism revenue dropped -2.8% y/y to 28.7 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) during the Mid-Autumn Festival versus the year-earlier level. 

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index today rallied to a new 2-week high. Apple’s Asian supplies moved higher today to lead technology stocks higher after pre-order data for the latest versions of the iPhone pointed to strong demand.  Also, Nintendo jumped 5.5% after its Splatoon 3 video game set a new sales record in Japan for the first three days after its release.

Today’s Japanese economic news on producer prices was bearish for stocks after Japan Aug PPI was unchanged at 9.0% y/y, higher than expectations of a decline to 8.9% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Oracle (ORCL) is up nearly +2% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 adjusted revenue of $11.45 billion, above the consensus of $11.44 billion.

Cheniere Energy (LNG) rallied more than +3% in pre-market trading after it boosted its full-year adjusted Ebitda estimate to $11.0 billion-$11.5 billion from a previous forecast of $9.8 billion-$10.3 billion, better than the consensus of $10.25 billion. 

Energy Transfer LP (ET) climbed more than +2% in pre-market trading on signs of insider buying after an SEC filing showed Chairman Warren bought $29.2 million of the company’s shares. 

CVS Health (CVS) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after the company said it reaffirmed its full-year 2022 adjusted EPS guidance range of $8.40-$8.60.

Planet Labs (PL) jumped +11% in pre-market trading after reporting Q2 revenue of $48.5 million, above the consensus of $42.3 million, and raised its full-year revenue forecast to $182 million-$190 million from a prior forecast of $177 million-$187 million, stronger than the consensus of $182 million.  

NetEase (NTES) climbed +4% in pre-market trading after one of its games was on the list of 73 games approved by the Chinese government.

Dow Inc (DOW) fell -1% in pre-market trading after Jeffries downgraded the stock to hold, citing downside risk as rising interest rates further hir consumer confidence. 

Tyson Foods (TSN) slipped almost -1% in pre-market trading after Argus Research Citigroup downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Driven Brands Holdings (DRVN) tumbled more than -6% in pre-market trading after it announced that it intends to offer for sale an underwritten secondary offering of 7 million shares of the company’s stock.

Braze (BRZE) dropped more than -5% in pre-market trading after reporting a Q2 diluted adjusted loss per share of -$0.35, a wider loss than the consensus of -$0.20.

Rent the Runway (RENT) plunged -24% in pre-market trading after reporting Q2 active subscribers of124,131, well below the consensus of 143,691, and then cut its 2023 revenue forecast to $285 million-$290 million from a prior forecast of $295 million-$305 million, weaker than the consensus of $304.8 million. 

Today’s U.S. Earnings Reports (9/13/2022)

Cenntro Electric Group Ltd (CENN), Core & Main Inc (CNM), Innovage Holding Corp (INNV), Value Line Inc (VALU), Vintage Wine Estates Inc (VWE).

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