- Soybeans March 19'
Highly Accurate, Multi Time Frame Technical Analysis
- Softs Report 01/16/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was lower as the US Dollar moved a little higher and most ag markets found new speculative selling. Prices overall [...]...
- Sugar Prices Hit A 2 Month High
Here are my thoughts...
- Softs Report 01/15/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little higher . World production and supplies are going still lower due to bad weather in the growing [...]
- The overnight session gets us going in the Cocoa market!
Time to reward the market and move some stops...or take profits if satisfied. Well done to all those participating!!
- Softs Report 01/14/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was near unchanged last week and is consolidating just above major support near 7000 on the weekly charts. Weak overall...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures were up 82 to 91 points in most contracts on Wednesday. The Cotlook A Index was up 30 points on January 15 to 82.45 cents/lb. A Cotton Grower survey showed that 13.6 million acres of cotton intended for 2019, compared to 14.05 last year. Secretary Perdue announced that ~2,500 FSA employees will return to work on Thursday, Friday, and next Tuesday to help with loans in process and other limited items. Only selected office locations will be open on those days.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 73.270, up 91 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 74.540, up 82 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 75.710, up 82 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
March ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) on Wednesday closed up +48 (+2.11%) and March ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed up +21 (+1.26%). Cocoa prices moved higher Wednesday on signs of stronger demand after the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings rose +1.6% y/y to 359,103 MT, although that was below expectations for a +2.0% y/y increase. Mar NY cocoa had dropped to a 3-week low on Tuesday and Mar London cocoa fell to a 4-week low on signs of robust cocoa production in West Africa. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.19 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Jan 13, up +12.2% from the same time last year. Also, data from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, showed strong output after the Ghana Cocoa Board reported that cocoa purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers rose +4.7% y/y to 455,663 MT during the first twelve weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Dec 28. Cocoa prices last week rallied to a 6-month high on crop concerns in West Africa after Radiant Solutions said "mid-crop growth will be minimal" for cocoa crops as weather conditions throughout the Ivory Coast and Ghana have been overwhelmingly dry.
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Wednesday closed up +0.01 (+0.08%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed down -1.40 (-0.28%). Mar NY sugar climbed to a 2-1/4 month high Wednesday on signs that sugar exports from India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, may ease after India's Prime Minister's Office said it is considering raising the minimum selling price of sugar to 31 rupees/kg from 29 rupees/kg, which may curb India's sugar exports. Also, researcher Marex Spectron cut its India 2018/19 sugar export estimate to 2.8 MMT from a Nov estimate of 3.0 MMT. Sugar prices fell back from their best levels Wednesday, with Mar London sugar closing lower, on weakness in crude oil prices, which is negative for ethanol prices. The weaker ethanol prices may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies. Sugar prices still have support on data from Unica Tuesday that showed 2018/19 Brazil Center-South sugar production through December was down -26.5% y/y at 26.339 MMT, with the percent of sugar cane used for ethanol at 65.53% (up from 53.07% last year) and the percent of cane used for sugar at 35.47% (down from 46.93% last year). Also, Brazil's hydrous ethanol prices fell for a second week to 1.6354 real per liter the week ended Jan 11, down -12% y/y and the lowest for this time a year in 3 years, which may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production with the lower ethanol prices.
March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Wednesday closed up +1.10 (+1.09%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed up +12 (+0.79%). Coffee prices moved higher Wednesday on fund short-covering after the Green Coffee Association reported U.S. Dec green coffee inventories fell -7.5% y/y to 6.13 mln bags. Coffee prices had declined to 1-1/2 week lows Tuesday after Cecafe reported Brazil Dec green coffee exports surged +27% y/y to 3.36 mln bags, the highest ever for a December. An overabundance of coffee supply continues to weigh on prices as ICE-monitored coffee inventories Monday climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.475 mln bags. Also, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Thursday forecast a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and said a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months. On the positive side, data from Somar Meteorolgia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais measured 9.5 mm in the past week, only 13% of the historical average. Also, Brazilian exporter Comexim forecasts that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -7.7% y/y to 58.2 million bags as the crop is in the lower-yielding half of its biennial cycle. Robusta coffee has support on signs of smaller robusta supplies after Vietnam Customs last Thursday reported that Vietnam Dec robusta coffee exports fell -6.1% y/y to 153,906 MT. The outlook for a record coffee crop in Brazil and a global supply glut is a major bearish factor for coffee prices. Conab, Brazil's national supply agency, recently raised its Brazil 2018/19 coffee production estimate to a record 61.7 mln bags (+37% y/y) from a Sep forecast of 59.9 mln bags.