- Coffee Prices Hit New Lows
90 looks to be coming
- Softs Report 03/22/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher on big fund buying as May futures moved once again above 76.00 and this time was able to [...]
- Cotton (CT) Breaks 9 Month Downchannel Resistance
Cotton (CT) surged more than 2% yesterday as it broke above a 9 month downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart). CT is due for some healthy profittaking...
- Lean Hogs June 2019
Highly Accurate Multi Time Frame Technical Analysis
- Softs Report 03/21/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and...
- Mooses in the Markets - Technicals Show Weakness and Supply, Demand Seesaw Continues - Cocoa Futures
During Wednesdays trading session, May cocoa attempted to break some key support levels.
Futures Market News and Commentary
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Monday closed sharply higher by +57 (+2.64%) on some short-covering from last Thursday's 3-3/4 month low. May ICE London cocoa # 7 (CAK19) closed up +49 (+3.01%) on an upward rebound from last Thursday's 1-3/4 month low. Cocoa on Monday saw some heavy short-covering after last Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that money managers boosted their net short cocoa positions to a 5-month high of 34,944 futures contracts. Monday's rally came despite generally bearish fundamentals with favorable weather and ample supply. Rain was normal or above-average across most of the Ivory Coast and southern Ghana during March 17-23, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, although the rainy season has started in Western Africa and farmers are concerned about potential flooding. The Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, reported on Monday that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.624 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Mar 24, up +12.0% from the same time last year. Meanwhile in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, the Ghana Cocoa Board on Monday said that cocoa purchases from farmers for the first 19 weeks of the harvest (Oct 5 through Feb 14) rose +6.2% y/y to 664,019 MT. Nigeria's Feb cocoa-bean exports were reported on Monday at up +16% y/y to 13,143 MT but were down sharply by -77% from January due to reduced inventory levels at warehouses. Current cocoa supplies are abundant as cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses were at 4.227 million bags on Monday, just mildly below last Monday's 5-3/4 month high of 4.269 mln bags.
May arabica coffee (KCK19) on Monday closed +0.35 (+0.37%) after battling back from an early contract low. May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) on Monday closed up +5 (+0.33%) and remained just mildly above its March 15 contract low. Arabica coffee prices on Monday rebounded upward on the +0.7% rally in the Brazilian real from the early 3-month low, which discourages exports by Brazil's coffee producers and suggests tighter supplies. Coffee prices on Monday nevertheless saw continued downward pressure from ample supplies and generally favorable weather in Brazil. Coffee prices are being undercut by the favorable weather situation in Brazil where drier conditions this week will allow field work followed by forecasted rain for next week. Current supplies are abundant as ICE-monitored coffee inventories last Friday climbed to a new 4-3/4 year high of 2,503,286 mln bags and then dipped just slightly to 2,503,036 on Monday. CeCafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil Feb arabica coffee exports jumped +40.5% y/y to 3.1 mln bags. A positive factor for robusta coffee is smaller robusta supply after recent data from Vietnam's Department of Customs showed that Vietnam Jan-Feb coffee exports fell -10.1% y/y to 317,148 MT.
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Monday fell to a new 1-week low and closed the day -0.09 (-0.77%). May ICE London white sugar #5 (SWK19) fell to a new 2-3/4 month low and closed -2.90 (-0.86%). High sugar production in Brazil continued to weigh on sugar prices after Platts on Monday released an analyst survey showing consensus expectations for a +7.7% yr/yr increase to 28.5 MMT in sugar production in 2019/20 (starting April 1) in Brazil's Center-South region. In addition, Platts Kingsman later on Monday raised its forecast for the 2018-19 sugar surplus to 5.5 MMT from Jan's forecast of 3.2 MMT due to bigger-than-expected sugar production by India of a record 32.9 MMT vs its Feb forecast of 32.3 MMT. Also on the bearish side, Platts Kingsman reduced its projected 2019-20 global sugar deficit to 1.9 MMT from Feb's 3.6 MMT due to reduced consumption estimates and higher output by Russia, Iran, and Egypt. Sugar prices on Monday were also undercut by mildly lower crude oil prices, which suggests lower ethanol prices, lower Brazilian ethanol production, and higher Brazilian sugar production. Sugar prices early Monday were pressured by early drop in the Brazilian real to a new 3-month low, but then sugar then found some underlying support as the real more than recovered its losses and closed the day up +0.7%. Monday's higher real discourages exports by Brazil's sugar producers, thus reducing global sugar supplies.
Cotton futures are trading 25 to 76 points in the green on Monday. The Cotlook A Index was up 175 points on March 22 to 86.40 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 65.83 cents/ lb and in effect through Thursday. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds trimming their net short position as of March 19 by 9,189 contracts to 10,818 contracts in cotton futures and options. According to USDA’s Cotton Classing report on Friday, as of March 21 a total of 16.779 million bales of upland have been classed. Including Pima, the total for 18/19 is 17.556 million bales through that date.May 19 Cotton is at 77.34, up 76 points,Jul 19 Cotton is at 78.19, up 62 pointsDec 19 Cotton is at 75.550, up 25 points --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management