- Softs Report 03/21/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and...
- Live Cattle June '19
Superior Technical Analysis - Not to Be Missed !
- Mooses in the Markets - Technicals Show Weakness and Supply, Demand Seesaw Continues - Cocoa Futures
During Wednesdays trading session, May cocoa attempted to break some key support levels.
- Softs Report 03/20/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday and prices took out resistance areas near 76.00 May. However, the rally above that level did not [...]...
- Coffee Prices Stuck In 3 Week Consolidation
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- Softs Report 03/19/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and could not take out some important resistance areas near 76.00 May. Market bulls will try to [...]...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures are trading 46 to 56 points higher in most contracts on Thursday, with back months slightly lower. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points on March 19 to 84.65 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 65.83 cents/ lb on Thursday, up 173 points from the week prior. The weekly Export Sales report by the USDA this morning showed sales of 124,985 RB for old crop cotton, with new crop at 32,824 RB. Vietnam purchased 84,700 RB for old crop, with China cancelling a net 11,636 RB. China was the lead buyer of new crop at 15,400 RB, with Pakistan at 8,900 RB.May 19 Cotton is at 76.06, up 56 points,Jul 19 Cotton is at 77.02, up 46 pointsDec 19 Cotton is at 74.940, down 5 points --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) this morning is down -13 (-0.61%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAK19) is down -4 (-0.25%). Cocoa prices extended Wednesday's losses today with May NY cocoa at a new 3-1/4 month low and May London cocoa at a fresh 1-1/2 month low. Cocoa prices remain under pressure on forecasts for beneficial rain in West Africa at the end of this week. In addition, satellite imagery from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center showed that there was above-average rainfall during March 10-16 across most of Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, although rain was mixed in the Ivory Coast. Another bearish factor is strong cocoa production in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, after data on Monday showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.586 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Mar 17, up +10.9% from the same time last year. Current cocoa supplies are abundant as cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses rose to a 5-3/4 month high Monday of 4.269 mln bags.
May arabica coffee (KCK19) this morning is up +1.35 (+1.42%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is up +14 (+0.94%). Coffee prices are recovering from recent losses today as strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar spurs fund short-covering. A stronger real discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee tumbled to a contract low Wednesday and May robusta held just above Friday's contract low on ample coffee supplies and rain in Brazil. Researcher Cepea on Wednesday projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports may climb to a record 40 mln bags. Also, ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.5 mln bags on Tuesday and CeCafe reported last Wednesday that Brazil Feb arabica coffee exports jumped +40.5% y/y to 3.1 mln bags. In addition, abundant rainfall in Brazil is benefiting Brazil's coffee crops after data from Somar Meteorologia on Monday showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica coffee growing region, measured 56.8 mm in the past week, or 131% of the historical average. A positive factor for coffee was last Friday's data from the Green Coffee Association that showed U.S. Feb green coffee inventories fell -4% y/y to 6.26 mln bags. A positive factor for robusta coffee is smaller robusta supply after recent data from Vietnam's Department of Customs showed that Vietnam Jan-Feb coffee exports fell -10.1% y/y to 317,148 MT.
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) this morning is down -0.19 (-1.49%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) is down -1.90 (-0.56%). Sugar prices remained under pressure today on ample global supply. Sugar prices continue to see negative carry-over from Tuesday news that the All India Sugar Trade Association raised its 2018/19 sugar production estimate for India, now the world's largest sugar producer, to 32.6 MMT from a Jan estimate of 31.5 MMT and above the Indian Sugar Mills Association's estimate of 30.7 MMT. Also, India's Sugar Mills Association on Monday reported that India sugar production during Oct 1-Mar 15 rose +5.9% y/y to 27.35 MMT. Weakness in crude prices today is another negative or sugar prices. Lower crude undercuts ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to sugar production than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. On the positive side is strength in the Brazilian real today against the dollar, which discourages exports by Brazil's sugar producers.