- Raw Sugar (SB) Consolidating Above 50% Fib Retrace of Oct Rally
Raw Sugar (SB) is edging higher late in today's US session, continuing a month plus consolidation between the 50% and 38.2% Fib retrace of the 3 week...
- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
Futures Market Commentary
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Wednesday closed up +0.70 (+0.68%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -5 (-0.33%). A rally in the Brazilian real to a 1-week high against the dollar Wednesday fueled short-covering in arabica coffee futures. Mar Robusta coffee posted a fresh 2-1/2 month low Wednesday on signs of abundant supplies as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. Coffee prices extended their 6-week decline to 2-1/2 month lows Tuesday and Wednesday as signs of robust global coffee production. ICO reported on Monday that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. On the positive side, ICO cut its 2017/18 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.59 mln bags from an October estimate of 2.58 mln bags. Also, crop concerns in Brazil continue after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) on Wednesday closed up +46 (+2.17%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed up +22 (+1.38%). Short-covering emerged in cocoa futures Wednesday on signs of tighter current cocoa supplies. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to a 1-3/4 year low Tuesday of 3.372 mln bags. Further upside may be limited on signs of robust global cocoa production. Ivory Coast data on Monday showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year, and data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and predicted the El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana. London cocoa rallied to a 3-week high Monday after GBP/USD plunged to a 1-1/2 year low.
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Wednesday closed down -0.09 (-0.70%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed down -1.50 (-0.44%). Sugar prices fell back Wednesday due to weakness in India's rupee, which fell to just above Tuesday's 4-week low against the dollar and may prompt India's sugar producers to boost sugar exports with the weak rupee. An increase in sugar exports from India, the world's fourth-largest sugar exporter, would boost global sugar supplies. Losses in sugar prices were limited on strength in the Brazilian real, which climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar and reduced the incentive for Brazil's sugar producers to boost exports. Also, Tuesday's data from Unica showed Brazil 2018/19 Center-South sugar production through Nov was 25.761 MMT, down -25.8% y/y, and that the percent of cane crushing for sugar output fell to 35.71% from 47.12% y/y while cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 64.29% from 52.88% y/y.
Cotton futures are trading 10 to 22 points lower on Wednesday, despite a sharply lower dollar. Thursday morning’s USDA Export Sales report will show data from the week following a US and China “truce,” where China agreed to buy more US ag goods. USDA did trim China’s 18/19 usage number on Tuesday by 1 million bales to 41.5 million. They also raised Pakistan imports by 300,000 bales on lower production. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day on Dec 11 at 88.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday.Mar 19 Cotton is at 79.85, down 17 points,May 19 Cotton is at 80.94, down 19 pointsJul 19 Cotton is at 81.5, down 22 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management