- Raw Sugar (SB) Consolidating Above 50% Fib Retrace of Oct Rally
Raw Sugar (SB) is edging higher late in today's US session, continuing a month plus consolidation between the 50% and 38.2% Fib retrace of the 3 week...
- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures were down 53 to 58 points on the day, following weak export sales data. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated that just 47,099 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold for export in the week of 12/6. That was well below this time last year and 50.35% lower than the week prior. Vietnam purchased 29,300 RB, with China the second largest buyer of 11,700 RB. Reductions of 28,600 RB was reported for Bangladesh. Sales of 19/20 upland cotton were 33,528 RB. Export shipments were down 2.53% from a week ago and 7.22% below last year at 154,547 RB. The Cotlook A index was up 5 points from the previous day on Dec 12 at 88.30 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through next Thursday and up 43 points from the previous week.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.410, down 56 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 80.430, down 58 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 81.020, down 53 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Thursday closed up +1.05 (+1.02%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -18 (-1.18%). Arabica coffee rebounded from a 2-1/2 month low Thursday and moved higher after the U.S. Climate Prediction Center raised its estimate for an El Nino weather pattern forming by the end of February to 91% from an 80% estimate in November, which may lead to hotter and drier conditions in South America. Coffee prices had dropped to fresh 2-1/2 month lows Thursday on signs of abundant supplies. ICO reported Monday that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. Robusta coffee supplies are also abundant as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, crop concerns in Brazil continue after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) on Thursday closed up +88 (+4.07%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed up +60 (+3.72%). Cocoa prices moved higher for a second day on Thursday with Mar NY cocoa climbing to a 3-week high and Mar London cocoa rising to a 1-month high. Short-covering pushed cocoa prices higher on signs of tighter current cocoa supplies. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to a 1-3/4 year low Wednesday of 3.351 mln bags. Mar NY cocoa posted a 1-week low Tuesday on signs of robust global cocoa production after Ivory Coast data Monday showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year. Also, data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and predicted the El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Thursday closed up +0.01 (+0.08%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed up +2.00 (+0.58.45%). Sugar prices rebounded from 2-week lows Thursday and moved higher as they tracked the rally in crude oil, which is positive for ethanol prices. Sugar prices posted 2-week lows early Thursday after Marex Spectron warned in a report that unless crude oil rallies, sugar's upside will be capped by lower ethanol parity in Brazil. Weaker ethanol prices may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production than ethanol production, which will boost sugar supplies. Sugar still has underlying support from Tuesday's data from Unica showing that Brazil 2018/19 Center-South sugar production through Nov was 25.761 MMT, down -25.8% y/y, and that the percent of cane crushing for sugar output fell to 35.71% from 47.12% y/y while cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 64.29% from 52.88% y/y.