- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
- Softs Report 12/04/18
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher in reaction to news of a truce in the tariff wars between the US and China. The highs [...]
Futures Market Commentary
Cotton futures are down 20 to 51 points in the front months on Monday. The US dollar index is showing strength at midday. The Cotlook A index was down 195 points from the previous day on Dec 7 at 87.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report will be released this afternoon. Export commitments for upland cotton now lag a year ago by 0.5% but are 70% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 60% average. Ahead of the USDA report on Tuesday, traders are estimating US cotton carryout will be trimmed.Mar 19 Cotton is at 79.72, down 51 points,May 19 Cotton is at 80.84, down 33 pointsJul 19 Cotton is at 81.53, down 20 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) this morning is down by -20 (-0.90%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) is down -3 (-0.18%). Signs of robust global cocoa production is a negative for prices this morning after Ivory Coast data today showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year. Also, data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and the predicted El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Cocoa prices rose to 2-week highs Friday on tightness in current cocoa supplies. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to an 11-month low Friday of 3.394 mln bags.
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) this morning is up +0.85 (+0.82%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) is down -5 (-0.32%). Coffee prices received a boost this morning after ICO cut its 2017/18 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.59 mln bags from an October estimate of 2.58 mln bags. Also, crop concerns in Brazil gave arabica coffee prices a lift after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or 43% of the historical average. Mar robusta coffee tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low this morning on increased exports from Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta coffee producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported Vietnam Nov coffee exports of 138,138 MT, up +32% y/y, and that Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports are up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) this morning is down -014 (-1.09%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) is down -2.10 (-0.61%). Lower crude oil prices are hurting sugar prices this morning. Weakness in crude oil prices undercuts ethanol prices, which gives incentive to Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production, thus boosting sugar supplies. Also, the Brazilian real this morning is down -0.56% against the dollar and is just above Thursday's 2-1/4 month low, which may encourage Brazil’s sugar producers to boost exports, thus increasing global supplies. Finally, Marex Spectron is projecting better-than-expected sugar cane yields for Brazil's Center-South, the country's biggest sugar producing region, as the forecast for above-average rain over the next three months favors 2019/20 sugar crop development.