- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
- Softs Report 12/04/18
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher in reaction to news of a truce in the tariff wars between the US and China. The highs [...]
Futures Market Commentary
Cotton futures posted 27 to 35 point losses in the nearby contracts on Monday. The US dollar index saw sharp gains on the day. The Cotlook A index was down 195 points from the previous day on Dec 7 at 87.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday. Export commitments for upland cotton now lag a year ago by 0.5% but are 70% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 60% average. Ahead of the USDA report on Tuesday, traders are estimating US cotton carryout will be trimmed. The delayed Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders in cotton futures and options adding 1,108 contracts to their net long position on 12/4 at 38,102 cotnracts.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.880, down 35 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 80.890, down 28 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 81.460, down 27 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) on Monday closed down by -19 (-0.85%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed up +7 (+0.43%). Signs of robust global cocoa production was a negative for prices Monday after Ivory Coast data today showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year. Also, data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and predicted the El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana. London cocoa rallied to a 3-week high Monday on weakness in the British pound after GBP/USD plunged to a 1-1/2 year low. Current supplies are tighter as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to an 11-month low last Friday of 3.394 mln bags.
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Monday closed down -0.15 (-1.17%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed down -2.60 (-0.75%). Sugar prices were pressured by the sell-off in crude oil prices, which undercut ethanol prices and increased the incentive for Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane-crushing toward sugar production, thus boosting sugar supplies. Also, the Brazilian real tumbled to a 2-1/4 month low against the dollar on Monday, which may encourage Brazil’s sugar producers to boost exports and increase global sugar supplies. Finally, Marex Spectron is projecting better-than-expected sugar cane yields for Brazil's Center-South, the country's biggest sugar producing region, as the forecast for above-average rain over the next three months favors 2019/20 sugar crop development.
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Monday closed up +1.05 (+1.01%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -6 (-0.39%). Coffee prices received a boost Monday after ICO cut its 2017/18 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.59 mln bags from an October estimate of 2.58 mln bags. Also, crop concerns in Brazil gave arabica coffee prices a lift after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Mar robusta coffee tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low Monday on increased exports from Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta coffee producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported Vietnam Nov coffee exports of 138,138 MT, up +32% y/y, and that Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports are up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).