- Raw Sugar (SB) Consolidating Above 50% Fib Retrace of Oct Rally
Raw Sugar (SB) is edging higher late in today's US session, continuing a month plus consolidation between the 50% and 38.2% Fib retrace of the 3 week...
- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures are showing 43 to 50 point gains on Friday. Cotton commitments for export are now lagging a year ago by 2.5%. Compared to the USDA projected 15 million bales, they are 71% of that number vs. the 62% average for early December. The Cotlook A index was down 5 points from the previous day on Dec 13 at 88.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through next Thursday and up 43 points from the previous week.Mar 19 Cotton is at 79.84, up 43 points,May 19 Cotton is at 80.9, up 47 pointsJul 19 Cotton is at 81.52, up 50 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) this morning is down -1.60 (-1.54%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) is down -17 (-1.13%). Coffee prices are lower this morning as Mar Robusta sold off to a 2-1/2 year low. Mar arabica fell to a 2-1/2 month low Thursday as signs of abundant supplies have spurred fund selling of coffee. ICO data Monday showed that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. Robusta coffee supplies are also abundant as data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs on Tuesday showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday raised its estimate for an El Nino weather pattern forming by the end of February to 91% from an 80% estimate in November, which may lead to hotter and drier conditions in South America. Also, Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) this morning is up +7 (+0.31%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) is up +7 (+0.42%). Cocoa prices rallied for a third day and posted 1-month highs on signs of tighter cocoa supplies. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to a 1-3/4 year low Thursday of 3.349 mln bags. Mar NY cocoa dropped to a 1-week low Tuesday on signs of robust global cocoa production after Ivory Coast data Monday showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year. Also, data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and predicted the El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Cotton futures are trading 31 to 74 points lower this morning. They were down 53 to 58 points on Thursday, following weak export sales data. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated that just 47,099 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold for export in the week of 12/6. That was well below this time last year and 50.35% lower than the week prior. Vietnam purchased 29,300 RB, with China the second largest buyer of 11,700 RB. Sales of 19/20 upland cotton were 33,528 RB. Export shipments were down 2.53% from a week ago and 7.22% below last year at 154,547 RB. The Cotlook A index was up 5 points from the previous day on Dec 12 at 88.30 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through next Thursday and up 43 points from the previous week.--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management