- Raw Sugar (SB) Consolidating Above 50% Fib Retrace of Oct Rally
Raw Sugar (SB) is edging higher late in today's US session, continuing a month plus consolidation between the 50% and 38.2% Fib retrace of the 3 week...
- Weekend Wrap Up
What to expect from this weeks grain and livestock trade.
- Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to movehigher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial...
- Cotton Prices Trade Sharply Lower
- Negative Global Market Tone and Technical Trade Lead Cocoa Futures
Wednesdays trading session in cocoa pulled March futures down below 2100. At one point the market traded as low as 2095 testing key support levels
- Cotton (CT) Testing 6 Month Downtrend Resistance
Cotton (CT) is consolidating a 2nd day following Monday's strong rally that punctured a 6 month downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart). With CT...
Futures Market Commentary
Cotton futures posted 14 to 26 point gains on Tuesday, despite larger US carryout numbers and a stronger US dollar. This morning’s monthly USDA report showed increased US production, up 180,000 bales to 18.559 million bales. TX production was up 300,000 bales to 7.032 million. That helped to raise projected carryout 100,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. World ending stocks were up 580,000 bales to 73.19 million bales. Larger Chinese and Brazil carryout helped to push it higher. The Cotlook A index was up 125 points from the previous day on Dec 10 at 88.5 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 80.020, up 14 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 81.130, up 24 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 81.720, up 26 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH19) on Tuesday closed down sharply by -90 (-4.08%) and Mar ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed down -46 (-2.51%). Signs of robust global cocoa production pressured cocoa prices for a second day after Ivory Coast data on Monday showed that farmers sent 753,549 MT of cocoa to ports from Oct 1-Dec 9, up +29.7% from the same time last year. Also, data from the Ghana Cocoa Board showed purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers, the world's second-biggest cocoa producers, reached 322,945 MT during the first eight weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Nov 29, up +41.7% y/y. World Weather said the annual Harmattan winds are off to a slow start this year in West Africa and predicted the El Nino weather pattern is looking weaker, which is positive for cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Losses in London cocoa prices were less than NY cocoa due to weakness in the British pound. London cocoa rallied to a 3-week high Monday after GBP/USD plunged to a 1-1/2 year low. Current supplies are tighter as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have fallen steadily over the past 7 months to an 11-month low Friday of 3.394 mln bags.
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Tuesday closed up +0.11 (+0.86%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed up +1.70 (+0.50%). Sugar prices moved higher Tuesday on reduced sugar output from Brazil's Center-South. Unica reported Brazil 2018/19 Center-South sugar production through Nov was 25.761 MMT, down -25.8% y/y, and that the percent of cane crushing for sugar output fell to 35.71% from 47.12% y/y while cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 64.29% from 52.88% y/y. Strength in crude oil prices Tuesday was another supportive factor for sugar prices. On the negative side, Marex Spectron on Monday projected better-than-expected sugar cane yields for Brazil's Center-South, the country's biggest sugar producing region, as the forecast for above-average rain over the next three months favors 2019/20 sugar crop development.
Mar arabica coffee (KCH19) on Tuesday closed down -2.80 (-2.66%) and Mar ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -21 (-1.36%). Coffee prices extended their 6-week-long decline to fresh 2-1/2 month lows on Tuesday as signs of robust global coffee production induced fund selling of coffee futures. ICO reported on Monday that global 2017/18 arabica coffee output rose +1.7% y/y to 101.3 mln bags and 2017/18 robusta coffee production rose +10.0% y/y to 62.3 mln bags. Cecafe reported Tuesday that Brazil Nov green coffee exports jumped +26% y/y to 3.424 mln bags, the highest ever for a November, with Nov arabica coffee exports up +18% y/y to 3.19 mln bags. A negative for robusta prices was data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs that showed Vietnam Nov coffee exports rose +32% y/y to 138,138 MT, and Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports were up +2.8% y/y at 1.72 MMT. On the positive side, ICO cut its 2017/18 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.59 mln bags from an October estimate of 2.58 mln bags. Also, crop concerns in Brazil continue after Somar Meteorologia said rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 27.7 mm in the past week, or only 43% of the historical average. Current coffee supplies remain ample as ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the recent 4-year high of 2.459 mln bags (Nov 19).