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Fri, Feb 22nd, 2019
[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Fri, Feb 22nd, 2019.
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Cotton Market News and Commentary

Cotton futures ended the day with most contracts 35 to 100 points in the red. Nearby March was up 2.31% this week. The Cotlook A Index was UNCH on February 21 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The Export Sales report showed all old crop upland cotton bookings of 977,144 RB in the weeks of 1/10-2/14. That averaged 162,857 RB per week and was 46.09% shy of the same time frame in 2018. Turkey was the top buyer of 352,800 RB, with China cancelling a net 28,100 RB. There were 161,392 RBs in new crop sales, with 85,600 RB sold to China. Total commitments have slipped to 7.8% lower than the year previous. The USDA released preliminary forecasts for 19/20 cotton numbers, showing production at 22.5 million bales and carryout rising 2 million bales to a burdensome 6.3 million.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 71.840, down 35 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 73.010, down 100 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 74.170, down 82 points--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cocoa Prices Close Higher on Dry Conditions in West Africa

May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Friday closed up +13 (+0.57%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAK19) closed up +11 (+0.63%). Cocoa prices moved higher Friday on short-covering due to forecasts for below-normal precipitation in West Africa over the next week, which may curb cocoa yields from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa producers. Cocoa prices dropped to 1-week lows Thursday as signs of strong cocoa production in West Africa spurred fund selling in cocoa futures. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.451 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Feb 17, up +8.3% from the same time last year. The Feb 11 data from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, showed strong output as cocoa purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers rose +15.4% y/y to 644,318 MT during the first seventeen weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Jan 31. Another bearish factor is an increase in current supplies after cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses rose to a 3-1/2 month high of 3.87 mln bags on Feb 15.Big Picture Cocoa Market Factors: Bullish factors for cocoa include (1) the forecast from Radiant Solutions that "mid-crop growth will be minimal" for cocoa crops as weather conditions throughout the Ivory Coast and Ghana have been overwhelmingly dry, and (2) strong cocoa demand in Asia after the Singapore Cocoa Association reported that Asia Q4 cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose +6.3% y/y to 208,900, stronger than expectations for a decline of -1.3% y/y, and as Asia 2018 full-year cocoa grindings rose +7.8% y/y to 780,956 MT, the highest since data began in 2011. Bearish factors for cocoa include (1) ICCO's forecast for a small global cocoa surplus of +22,000 MT in 2017/18, although that is down sharply from 2016/17's 6-year high surplus of 296,000 MT, (2) the projection from Barry Callebaut, the world's biggest cocoa processor, that global supply may match demand in 2019 amid robust global cocoa output, and (3) signs of tepid demand after the National Confectioners Association reported North American Q4 cocoa processing rose +1.2% to 117,526 MT, weaker than expectations of +2.5%, and after the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings rose +1.6% y/y to 359,103 MT, below expectations of +2.0% y/y.
Sugar Prices Rally on Support from Real

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Friday closed up +0.10 (+0.76%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +3.30 (+0.93%). Sugar prices moved higher Friday on the heels of a rally in crude oil to a 3-1/4 month high. Higher crude prices benefits ethanol prices, which may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Also, strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar Friday supported sugar prices since that discourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report Feb 12 that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).Big Picture Sugar Market Factors: Bullish factors for sugar include (1) concern about smaller global production after Unica forecasted that Brazil's Center South 2018/19 sugar production will fall -28% y/y to 26 MMT, (2) increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y, and (3) stronger demand for Brazil's ethanol after Unica reported Brazil millers sold 1.83 billion liters of hydrous ethanol in the domestic market in Jan, up +32.5% y/y and a record volume for a January, which implies less Brazilian sugar production. Bearish factors include (1) ISO's forecast that global 2018/19 sugar production will rise +0.6% y/y to a record 185.2 MMT and that there will be a 2018/19 sugar surplus of 2.2 MMT (vs 2017/18's 7.3 MMT), (2) USDA's FAS forecast for 2018/19 sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, to climb +5.3% y/y to a record 35.9 MMT, and (3) record sugar output from Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer, after the Thailand Office of Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand 2017/18 sugar production rose to a record 14.47 MMT.
Coffee Prices Close Higher on Strength in the Brazilian Real

May arabica coffee (KCK19) on Friday closed up +0.55 (+0.55%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed up +6 (+0.39%). Coffee prices closed higher Friday after strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar sparked short-covering in coffee futures. Strength in the real discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee on Thursday fell to a contract low and May robusta coffee fell to a 1-week low on ample rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that 79.6 mm of rain fell in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee-growing region, or 186% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Robusta coffee also found support Friday after Vietnam's provincial weather office said rain in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing region, will be lower than the historical average though the end of this month. On the negative side is increased supply in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam Jan coffee exports rose +19.4% m/m and +41.1% y/y to 183,693 MT. Coffee prices also saw downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported Feb 18 that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: Bullish factors for coffee include (1) projections from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil 2019/20 coffee production will fall -18% y/y to 50.5 mln bags as the crop moves into the lower-yielding half of a 2-year cycle, (2) ICO's forecast for a 2017/18 global coffee deficit of -3.5 mln bags, and (3) USDA projections that global 2018/19 coffee consumption will climb +2.9% to a record 163.219 mln bags. Bearish factors include (1) the +20% y/y surge in Brazil Jan green coffee exports to 3.05 mln bags, the highest ever for a January, (2) ample supplies as ICO data showed that global 2017/18 coffee exports rose +2% y/y to 121.9 mln bags and that global 2018/19 coffee exports Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags, (3) ICO's forecast for a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of 2.29 mln bags and its projection that a second year of surplus will depress coffee prices over the next few months, (4) heavy coffee supply as ICE-monitored coffee inventories climbed to a 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags, (5) Conab projections for Brazil's 2018 coffee production to climb +37% y/y to a record 61.7 mln bags as crops are in the higher-yielding half of their biennial cycle, and (6) USDA projections for global 2018/19 coffee production to climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and for global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks to increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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