- Livestock Report
Volatile Hogs go limit up
- Softs Report 02/21/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading. Chart trends are trying to turn up for the short-term, and the market [...]...
- February Trading in Cocoa Futures
The cocoa futures market began 2019 on a down note. Global uncertainty, political issues, trade talks and volatility in the currencies and equities added...
Futures Market News and Commentary
Cotton futures settled the Thursday session with most nearby contracts 109 to 191 points higher. Progress is reportedly being made between the US and China this week, with reports showing the two countries developing several Memorandum of Understandings. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on February 20 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum showed a forecast of 14.3 million acres for 2019 all cotton acres. The Cotton On Call report from CFTC for the week of February 1 showed unfixed call sales at 16,628 contracts, with unfixed call purchased at 14,928 contracts.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 72.190, up 191 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 74.010, up 185 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 74.990, up 165 points --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Thursday closed down -1.45 (-1.49%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed down -12 (-0.79%). Coffee prices moved lower Thursday with Mar arabica coffee at a 2-month nearest-futures low and Mar robusta coffee at a 1-week low. A decline in the Brazilian real to a 1-week low against the dollar Thursday pressured coffee prices as the weaker real encourages exports by Brazil's coffee producers. Coffee prices also remain under pressure on signs of ample rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 79.6 mm of rain fell in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee-growing region, or 186% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Mar robusta coffee is also seeing pressure on signs of increased supplies in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam Jan coffee exports rose +19.4% m/m +41.1% y/y to 183,693 MT. Coffee prices are also seeing downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Monday reported that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Thursday closed down -42 (-1.81%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed down -16 (-0.91%). Cocoa prices moved lower Thursday for a second day and dropped to 1-week lows as strong cocoa production in West Africa spurred fund selling in cocoa futures. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.451 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Feb 17, up +8.3% from the same time last year. Last Monday's data from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, showed strong output as cocoa purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers rose +15.4% y/y to 644,318 MT during the first seventeen weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Jan 31. Another bearish factor is an increase in current supplies after cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses rose to a 3-1/2 month high of 3.87 mln bags on Friday. May NY cocoa on Tuesday rallied to a 1-month high on weather concerns in West Africa. Forecasts for above-normal temperatures with dry conditions over the next week in West Africa may increase stress on Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa crops.
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Thursday closed down -0.18 (-1.35%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed down -3.80 (-1.06%). Sugar prices moved lower Thursday after weakness in the Brazilian real and in crude oil prices sparked long liquidation in sugar futures. The Brazilian real fell to a 1-week low against the dollar Thursday, which encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Crude prices also moved lower Thursday, which is negative for ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol production, thus boosting sugar supplies. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).