- Softs Report 02/22/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was higher on news that China was willing to buy a massive amount of agricultural goods, presumably including Cotton. Speculators...
- Cotton (CT) Daily MACD Positively Crossing
Cotton (CT) powered more than 2.5% higher yesterday, breaking above downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart). Significantly, CT remains within a downchannel...
- Livestock Report
Volatile Hogs go limit up
- Softs Report 02/21/19
COTTON General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trading. Chart trends are trying to turn up for the short-term, and the market [...]...
- February Trading in Cocoa Futures
The cocoa futures market began 2019 on a down note. Global uncertainty, political issues, trade talks and volatility in the currencies and equities added...
- Commodity Collapse? Yet Stocks, China Up?
Important conditions live in a host of mkts.
Futures Market News and Commentary
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) this morning is up +54 (+2.37%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAK19) is up +34 (+1.96%). Cocoa prices are higher this morning on short-covering due to forecasts for below-normal precipitation in West Africa over the next week, which may curb cocoa yields from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa producers. Cocoa prices dropped to 1-week lows Thursday as signs of strong cocoa production in West Africa spurred fund selling in cocoa futures. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.451 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Feb 17, up +8.3% from the same time last year. Last Monday's data from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, showed strong output as cocoa purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers rose +15.4% y/y to 644,318 MT during the first seventeen weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Jan 31. Another bearish factor is an increase in current supplies after cocoa stockpiles held at ICE-monitored warehouses rose to a 3-1/2 month high of 3.87 mln bags last Friday.
May arabica coffee (KCK19) this morning is up +0.65 (+0.65%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) is up +2 (+0.13%). Coffee prices moved higher this morning as strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar has sparked short-covering in coffee futures. Strength in the real discourages exports from Brazil's coffee producers. May arabica coffee on Thursday fell to a contract low and May robusta coffee fell to a 1-week low on signs of ample rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 79.6 mm of rain fell in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee-growing region, or 186% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Robusta coffee also found support today after Vietnam's provincial weather office said rain in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing region, will be lower than the historical average though the end of this month. On the negative side is increased supply in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam Jan coffee exports rose +19.4% m/m +41.1% y/y to 183,693 MT. Coffee prices are also seeing downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Monday reported that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) this morning is up +0.11 (+0.83%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) is up +2.20 (+0.62%). Sugar prices are higher this morning on the heels of a rally in crude oil to a 3-1/4 month high. Higher crude prices benefits ethanol prices, which may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Also, strength in the Brazilian real against the dollar this morning is supportive for sugar prices since that discourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. May NY sugar rallied to a 3-1/2 month high and May London sugar rose to a 1-month high Wednesday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar. Also, increased demand from Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, fueled fund buying of sugar after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. In addition, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd projected on Tuesday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Sugar prices have underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).
Cotton futures are trading 15 to 76 points higher after a sharp Thursday rally with most nearby contracts 109 to 191 points higher. Progress is reportedly being made between the US and China this week, with reports showing the two countries developing several Memoranda of Understanding. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on February 20 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum showed a forecast of 14.3 million acres for 2019 all cotton acres. The Cotton On Call report from CFTC for the week of February 1 showed unfixed call sales at 16,628 contracts, with unfixed call purchased at 14,928 contracts. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management