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Thu, Feb 21st, 2019
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Futures Market News and Commentary

Cotton Market News and Commentary

Cotton futures closed the Wednesday session with most contracts steady to 14 points lower. The Cotlook A Index was UNCH points on February 19 to 80.05 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 62.27 cents/lb through this Thursday. This week’s Export Sales report will be delayed until Friday due to Monday’s holiday. It should bring the data up to date, with data reported from the weeks of Jan 10-Feb 14. Chinese trade reps are in DC this week to talk trade.Mar 19 Cotton closed at 70.280, down 13 points,May 19 Cotton closed at 72.160, down 3 pointsJul 19 Cotton closed at 73.340, down 14 points --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cocoa Prices Close Lower on Robust Cocoa Output in West Africa

May ICE NY cocoa (CCK19) on Wednesday closed down -33 (-1.40%) and May ICE London cocoa (CAH19) closed down -12 (-0.68%). Cocoa prices moved lower Wednesday on signs of strong cocoa production in West Africa. Monday's data from the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 1.451 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Feb 17, up +8.3% from the same time last year. Last Monday's data from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, showed strong output as cocoa purchases from Ghana cocoa farmers rose +15.4% y/y to 644,318 MT during the first seventeen weeks of the harvest from Oct 5-Jan 31. Another bearish factor is an increase in current supplies after cocoa stockpiles held at port warehouses monitored by the ICE Futures U.S. exchange rose to a 3-1/2 month high of 3.87 mln bags on Monday. May NY cocoa rallied to a 1-month high Tuesday on weather concerns in West Africa. Forecasts for above-normal temperatures with dry conditions over the next week in West Africa may increase stress on Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa crops.
Coffee Prices Close Higher on A Rally in the Brazilian Real

March arabica coffee (KCH19) on Wednesday closed up +0.35 (+0.36%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH19) closed up +4 (+0.26%). Coffee prices erased early losses Wednesday and closed higher after the Brazilian real rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar, which discourages exports by Brazil's coffee producers. Mar arabica coffee on Tuesday posted a 2-month nearest-futures low on signs of ample rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 79.6 mm of rain fell in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee-growing region, or 186% of the historical average, which should boost soil moisture levels and coffee yields. Mar robusta coffee is also seeing pressure on signs of increased supplies in Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, after Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam Jan coffee exports rose +19.4% m/m +41.1% y/y to 183,693 MT. Coffee prices are also seeing downward pressure from ample coffee supplies after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Monday reported that global coffee exports during Oct-Dec were up +8.1% y/y at 30.9 mln bags. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are just below the 4-1/2 year high of 2.489 mln bags posted on Jan 23.
Sugar Prices Close Higher on Strength in the Brazilian Real and a Rally in Crude Oil

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK19) on Wednesday closed up +0.55 (+0.55%) and May ICE London white sugar (SWK19) closed up +0.90 (+0.25%). Sugar prices rallied Wednesday with May NY sugar at a 3-1/2 month high and May London white sugar at a 1-month high. Strength in the Brazilian real spurred short-covering in sugar futures after the real rose to a 2-week high against the dollar. The stronger real discourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Also, a rally in crude oil prices to a 3-month high underpinned sugar prices since higher crude oil prices benefit ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus reducing sugar supplies. Also boosting sugar prices was Tuesday's projection from India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall by at least -5% y/y to a 3-year low of 30 MMT. Also, Indonesia, the world's largest sugar importer, may import more sugar this year after Indonesia's Sugar Refiners Association said on Tuesday that refiners may import 3.2 MMT of raw sugar in 2019, up +5.3% y/y. Sugar prices are seeing underlying support from Unica's report last Tuesday that Brazil's 2018/19 Center-South sugar production during Oct-Jan was down -26.4% at 26.36 MMT, with 35.4% of cane used for sugar (down from 46.9% last year), and 64.56% of cane used for ethanol production (up from 53.1% last year).
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