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Wheat Dec '18 (ZWZ18)

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Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are up 1 to 3 1/2 cents in the CBT contracts on expected sales to Egypt. KC and MPLS are steady to 2 1/2 cents lower. The average trade estimate for all wheat acreage in 2019 is 46.9 million acres, down 900,000 acre yr/yr. Of that total, spring wheat acreage is seen at 13.4 million acres. State by state Crop Progress reports show winter wheat ratings in the Southern Plains up from last week, with KS at 52% gd/ex (13% last year) and OK at 74% ( 9% LY), as TX was at 39% (vs. 12% LY). US wheat in Egypt’s GASC tender was the lowest among the offers on Tuesday, with results expected this afternoon. Ethiopia is tendering for 600,000 MT of wheat in a tender that closes on April 30.May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.73, up 3 1/2 cents,May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.47 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.70 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
11/30/18
Expiration Date
12/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Wheat Dec '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Dec Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
173,081 (+2,530)
128,550 (+1,977)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
145,012 (-999)
187,973 (-1,688)
Producers - Long / Short
78,865 (+1,988)
89,924 (-2,349)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
60,823 (-4,363)
5,233 (-579)
Managed Money - Long / Short
85,258 (-1,107)
163,957 (+1,814)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
59,754 (+108)
24,016 (-3,502)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
492-0 +7.27%
on 11/29/18
527-6 unch
on 12/14/18
+24-6 (+4.92%)
since 11/14/18
3-Month
485-4 +8.70%
on 10/25/18
531-2 -0.66%
on 09/24/18
+16-2 (+3.18%)
since 09/14/18
52-Week
471-6 +11.87%
on 12/15/17
613-0 -13.91%
on 08/02/18
+52-2 (+10.99%)
since 12/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 527-6
1st Resistance Point 527-6
Last Price 527-6s
1st Support Level 527-6
2nd Support Level 527-6

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52-Week High 613-0
Fibonacci 61.8% 559-0
Fibonacci 50% 542-3
Last Price 527-6s
Fibonacci 38.2% 525-6
52-Week Low 471-6

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