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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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Soybeans Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 1 1/2 cents lower after seeing gains of 4 to 4 3/4 cents in the front months on Thursday. Meal futures led the way, up $3.70/ton, with soy oil 17 points lower. USDA reported that 399,528 MT of 18/19 soybeans were sold for export in the week of 3/14. That was down 47.4% from the same week last year. Old crop sales to China totaled 142,615, with 237,500 MT in reductions for unknown destinations. Soybean meal sales were tallied at 97,396 MT, with soy oil 5,548 MT. Both were in the middle of trade estimates from before the report. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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