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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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Soybeans Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher at midday. Meal futures are up 50 cents/ton, with soy oil up 18 points. USDA indicated that 857,970 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended on March 21, according to this morning’s Export Inspections report. That is slightly higher than last week and 20.84% larger than the same week a year ago. Money managers in soybean futures and options backed off their CFTC net short position by 26,205 contracts as of Tuesday to a net position of -63,992 contracts. AgRural estimates that the Brazilian soybean harvest is 67%, vs. the average of 63%. Chinese customs data suggested that the country imported 907,754 MT of US soybeans in February, up sharply from January, but still lagging 3.35 MMT in the same month last year.May 19 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.31 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal is at $315.50, up $0.50May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.84, up $0.18 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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