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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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Soybeans Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower in the front months at midday. Meal futures are up 20 cents/ton, with soy oil 25 points lower. Based on cmdtyView data, the national soybean index cash price is $8.16 3/4, down $1.27 1/2 from a year ago. The national basis is -86 cents, which is 8 cents weaker than the same time in 2018. Estimates for both Brazil and Argentina production were left UNCH by Dr. Michael Cordonnier at 113.5 MMT and 54 MMT respectively. Safras & Mercado expects Brazil’s exports in 2019 to be at 70 MMT, which would be down from the 83,86 MMT in 2018.May 19 Soybeans are at $9.01 3/4, down 4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.15 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.21 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal is at $310.00, up $0.20May 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.19, down $0.25--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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