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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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cmdty Insider - Soybeans Market Commentary


Soybean futures settled 14 to 18 1/2 cents per bushel lower on Monday. Traders are building in some healthy skepticism about the potential for a US/China trade deal and how quickly it would impact soybeans if it materialized. The APEC meeting failed to come to any kind of agreement. Soy meal was down $5.40/ton, with soy oil 5 points lower. USDA indicated that 1.056 MMT of soybeans were inspected for export in the week that ended on November 15. That was down 22.13% from last week and less than half of the same week in 2017. Argentina has become a consistent destination over the past several weeks, with 140,191 MT in shipments this week. Harvest progress was expected to be 92-93% complete ahead of this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. USDA indicated it was 91% completed in the 18 major states, still lagging the 96% average for this date.Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.73 3/4, down 18 1/2 cents,Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/2, down 18 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.00 3/4, down 18 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.13, down 17 1/2 cents,Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $305.50, down $5.40,Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.32, down $0.05--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybeans
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$2,255/2,050
First Notice Date
10/31/18
Expiration Date
11/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybeans Nov '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Nov 13, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
408,010 (+13,648)
331,024 (+4,859)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
135,147 (-361)
177,105 (+7,584)
Producers - Long / Short
264,356 (+11,987)
291,324 (-273)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
119,486 (-534)
15,532 (+2,937)
Managed Money - Long / Short
74,434 (-518)
123,919 (+10,101)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
60,713 (+157)
53,186 (-2,517)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
831-6 +4.66%
on 10/31/18
892-0 -2.41%
on 10/15/18
+3-0 (+0.35%)
since 10/12/18
3-Month
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
907-0 -4.02%
on 08/20/18
-9-2 (-1.05%)
since 08/14/18
52-Week
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
1060-4 -17.92%
on 05/29/18
-110-4 (-11.26%)
since 11/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 877-5
1st Resistance Point 874-1
Last Price 870-4s
1st Support Level 868-1
2nd Support Level 865-5

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52-Week High 1060-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 965-5
Fibonacci 50% 936-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 907-1
Last Price 870-4s
52-Week Low 812-2

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