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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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Soybeans Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May was down 0.6% on the week. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 44 points lower. Nearby soy oil lost 2.62% this week. Money managers in soybean futures and options backed off their net short position by 26,205 contracts as of Tuesday to a net position of -63,992 contracts. US soybean acres were estimated at 85.9 million acres according to a Farm Futures survey of producers. Export commitments for soybeans are down 17% from the same time last year. Compared to USDA’s projection they are 81% complete vs. the 92% average for this time of year.May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17 1/4, down 7 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/4, down 7 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.37 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.00, down $0.30,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.66, down $0.44 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,925/1,750
First Notice Date
10/31/18
Expiration Date
11/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybeans Nov '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
368,026 (-8,119)
291,821 (+18,955)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
127,547 (+2,784)
168,027 (-22,703)
Producers - Long / Short
265,002 (-8,425)
266,966 (+17,919)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
87,397 (-63)
9,228 (+667)
Managed Money - Long / Short
71,955 (+7,032)
134,159 (-19,814)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
55,592 (-4,248)
33,868 (-2,889)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
831-6 +4.66%
on 10/31/18
892-0 -2.41%
on 10/15/18
+3-0 (+0.35%)
since 10/12/18
3-Month
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
907-0 -4.02%
on 08/20/18
-9-2 (-1.05%)
since 08/14/18
52-Week
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
1060-4 -17.92%
on 05/29/18
-110-4 (-11.26%)
since 11/14/17

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May was down 0.6% on the week. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 44...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures settled with most winter wheat contracts steady to 2 cents lower, as MPLS was mixed. Strength in the dollar pressured the market. Front month CBT and KC saw slight gains this week, with MPLS...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures saw 1 to 2 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with May up 1.34% this week. A private export sale of 300,000 MT of corn for 2018/19 delivery to China was announced by the USDA this morning....

Livestock Report

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Balance Sheet Changes to Spur Prices?

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are showing 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts at Friday’s midday. Meal futures are down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 39 points lower. US soybean acres are estimated at 85.9 million...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures is mixed in most contracts at midday. KC is fractionally to 2 cents lower, with CBT fractionally to 2 cents higher. MPLS is fractionally mixed. Total old crop export commitments are now 3.1%...

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher in the front months on Friday. A private export sale of 300,000 MT of corn for 2018/19 delivery to China was announced by the USDA this morning. An updated...

Grains Report 03/22/19

WHEAT General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices closed higher. The export sales report was not strong, but the [...]

German Manufacturing Misses the Beat. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/22/19

The German manufacturing data had the markets do an about-face as we have another report or headline that “chicken little the sky is falling”!  Once [...]

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 877-5
1st Resistance Point 874-1
Last Price 870-4s
1st Support Level 868-1
2nd Support Level 865-5

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52-Week High 1060-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 965-5
Fibonacci 50% 936-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 907-1
Last Price 870-4s
52-Week Low 812-2

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