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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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Soybeans Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures saw gains of 4 to 4 3/4 cents in most front months on Thursday. Meal futures led the way, up $3.70/ton, with soy oil 17 points lower. USDA reported this morning that a total of 399,528 MT of 18/19 soybeans were sold for export in the week of 3/14. That was down 47.4% from the same week last year, with new crop shown at a net reduction of 64,446 MT (mostly to China). Old crop sales to China totaled 142,615, with 237,500 MT in reductions for unknown. Soybean meal sales were tallied at 97,396 MT, with soy oil 5,548 MT.May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.10 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.30 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.44 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.30, up $3.70,May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.10, down $0.17 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$1,925/1,750
First Notice Date
10/31/18
Expiration Date
11/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybeans Nov '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
376,145 (+35,042)
272,866 (+254)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
124,763 (+1,684)
190,730 (+36,720)
Producers - Long / Short
273,427 (+40,209)
249,047 (-508)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
87,460 (-5,584)
8,561 (+345)
Managed Money - Long / Short
64,923 (-4,570)
153,973 (+37,724)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
59,840 (+6,254)
36,757 (-1,004)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
831-6 +4.66%
on 10/31/18
892-0 -2.41%
on 10/15/18
+3-0 (+0.35%)
since 10/12/18
3-Month
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
907-0 -4.02%
on 08/20/18
-9-2 (-1.05%)
since 08/14/18
52-Week
812-2 +7.17%
on 09/18/18
1060-4 -17.92%
on 05/29/18
-110-4 (-11.26%)
since 11/14/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 877-5
1st Resistance Point 874-1
Last Price 870-4s
1st Support Level 868-1
2nd Support Level 865-5

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52-Week High 1060-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 965-5
Fibonacci 50% 936-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 907-1
Last Price 870-4s
52-Week Low 812-2

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