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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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cmdty Insider - Soybeans Market Commentary

Mon Oct 15, 7:24AM CDT
Soybean futures are currently UNCH to 1 cent lower. They settled mostly 9 cents higher on Friday and were down 1 1/2 cents for the week. Nearby soy meal was down $3.20/ton last week. US Soybean export sales in the week of 10/4 fell short of expectations at 439,651 MT. That was 75% from the same week last year. Net reductions of 187,899 MT were reported for China. Soy meal sales for 18/19 were 348,232 MT for that, with another of 664,996 MT of old business carried over from 2017/18. Soy Oil Sales totaled 11,439 MT for the first week of the new MY, with 65,029 MT carried over. The NOPA monthly crush report is scheduled for today, with Reuters showing an average trade estimate of 157.4 million bushels. NOPA member soy oil stocks are expected to be around 1.579 billion pounds. Trade ideas for tonight’s USDA report put soybean harvest at 39-39% completed. The average for this date is 53%, but little was done in the western Corn Belt last week due to rain and snow.--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybeans
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$2,255/2,050
First Notice Date
10/31/18 (16 days)
Expiration Date
11/14/18 (30 days)

Seasonal Chart

Daily price change for Soybeans Nov '18
Average price change for the 5 prior Nov contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 9, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
452,017 (-13,708)
380,834 (-15,580)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
156,086 (-6,218)
197,380 (-3,951)
Producers - Long / Short
283,926 (-12,371)
321,944 (-16,916)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
126,252 (-3,602)
17,051 (-929)
Managed Money - Long / Short
87,990 (-3,558)
127,681 (-6,745)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
68,096 (-2,660)
69,699 (+2,794)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
812-2 +8.19%
on 09/18/18
879-0 -0.03%
on 10/15/18
+48-2 (+5.81%)
since 09/14/18
3-Month
812-2 +8.19%
on 09/18/18
922-2 -4.72%
on 07/31/18
+44-4 (+5.33%)
since 07/13/18
52-Week
812-2 +8.19%
on 09/18/18
1060-4 -17.14%
on 05/29/18
-131-6 (-13.04%)
since 10/13/17

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Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 874-1
1st Resistance Point 870-7
Last Price 884-2
1st Support Level 861-3
2nd Support Level 855-1

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52-Week High 1060-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 965-5
Fibonacci 50% 936-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 907-1
Last Price 884-2
52-Week Low 812-2

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