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Soybeans Nov '18 (ZSX18)

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cmdty Insider - Soybeans Market Commentary

Fri Oct 19, 4:40PM CDT
Soybean futures fell into the close on Friday to settle within 1/2 cent of the low, down 6 to 7 1/4 cents. Nearby Nov was down 1.24% from a week ago. Front month soy meal was $3.20/ton lower on the day, with soy oil up 12 points. USDA reported a total of 180,000 MT of net cancellations for 18/19 soybeans to China this morning, with an additional 120,000 MT of optional origin beans to unknown also cancelled. US Soybean export sales commitments typically would total 54% of the USDA export projection by this date, with only 37% reached so far this year. Weekly data from CFTC showed spec funds trimming their net short position in soybean futures and options by 5,033 contracts on 10/16 to -36,368 contracts. AgRural on Friday estimated that 34% of the Brazilian bean crop was planted. The 5 year average pace is 18%.Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.56 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83 1/2, down 7 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.07 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $313.10, down $3.20,Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.14, up $0.12--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybeans
Contract Size
5,000 bushels
Tick Size
1/4 cent per bushel ($12.50 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$50
Margin/Maintenance
$2,255/2,050
First Notice Date
10/31/18 (9 days)
Expiration Date
11/14/18 (23 days)

Seasonal Chart

Soybeans Nov '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Nov Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Oct 16, 2018

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Commercials - Long / Short
459,253 (+7,236)
396,275 (+15,441)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
154,900 (-1,186)
184,674 (-12,706)
Producers - Long / Short
288,313 (+4,387)
339,896 (+17,952)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
128,749 (+2,497)
14,188 (-2,863)
Managed Money - Long / Short
87,564 (-426)
118,676 (-9,005)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
67,336 (-760)
65,998 (-3,701)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
837-2 +2.48%
on 09/25/18
892-0 -3.81%
on 10/15/18
+10-6 (+1.27%)
since 09/21/18
3-Month
812-2 +5.63%
on 09/18/18
922-2 -6.97%
on 07/31/18
-6-6 (-0.78%)
since 07/20/18
52-Week
812-2 +5.63%
on 09/18/18
1060-4 -19.09%
on 05/29/18
-140-0 (-14.03%)
since 10/20/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 869-6
1st Resistance Point 863-2
Last Price 857-4
1st Support Level 853-2
2nd Support Level 849-6

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52-Week High 1060-4
Fibonacci 61.8% 965-5
Fibonacci 50% 936-3
Fibonacci 38.2% 907-1
Last Price 857-4
52-Week Low 812-2

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