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Soybean Meal May '18 (ZMK18)

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Soybean Meal Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher at midday. Meal futures are up 50 cents/ton, with soy oil up 18 points. USDA indicated that 857,970 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended on March 21, according to this morning’s Export Inspections report. That is slightly higher than last week and 20.84% larger than the same week a year ago. Money managers in soybean futures and options backed off their CFTC net short position by 26,205 contracts as of Tuesday to a net position of -63,992 contracts. AgRural estimates that the Brazilian soybean harvest is 67%, vs. the average of 63%. Chinese customs data suggested that the country imported 907,754 MT of US soybeans in February, up sharply from January, but still lagging 3.35 MMT in the same month last year.May 19 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.26 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.31 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal is at $315.50, up $0.50May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.84, up $0.18 --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean Meal
Contract Size
100 tons (2,000 pounds per ton)
Tick Size
10 cents per ton ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$100
Margin/Maintenance
$1,320/1,200
First Notice Date
04/30/18
Expiration Date
05/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybean Meal May '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
228,827 (-6,304)
241,426 (+14,760)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
91,898 (+357)
90,608 (-16,724)
Producers - Long / Short
138,408 (-4,700)
206,728 (+16,050)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
67,099 (+48)
11,378 (+362)
Managed Money - Long / Short
49,536 (+2,227)
77,913 (-13,685)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
42,362 (-1,870)
12,695 (-3,039)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
369.5 +5.49%
on 04/24/18
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+7.0 (+1.83%)
since 04/13/18
3-Month
358.0 +8.88%
on 03/20/18
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+14.3 (+3.81%)
since 02/15/18
52-Week
299.6 +30.11%
on 06/23/17
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+74.8 (+23.75%)
since 05/15/17

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Most Recent Stories

More News
Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 995,997 MT of corn shipped in the week of March 21. That was a 24%...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher at midday. Meal futures are up 50 cents/ton, with soy oil up 18 points. USDA indicated that 857,970 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended...

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts, with MPLS mixed and within a penny of UNCH. All wheat export inspections for the week of March 21 were tallied at 340,398 MT by the...

Will Grains Continue Their Rally?

Will weather, trade talks, and the USDA report spur addtional short covering?

Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning. They saw 1 to 2 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with May up 1.34% this week. Preliminary OI dropped 11,066 contracts, with active rolling...

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are 1 to 2 1/2 cents higher this morning. They ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, pressured by product values. May soybeans were down 0.6% on the week....

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are steady to 2 cents lower this morning, with the July contract in Chicago up 1 tick like the first crocus of spring. They settled with most winter wheat contracts steady to 2 cents lower,...

Still Concerned with Weather

Lots of Time Though

Hedge funds reassess bearish bets

Money managers amass record net-short corn holding.

Planting Concerns Remain High

Planting Concerns Remain High

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 391.3
1st Resistance Point 390.6
Last Price 389.8s
1st Support Level 388.3
2nd Support Level 386.7

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52-Week High 404.9
Last Price 389.8s
Fibonacci 61.8% 364.7
Fibonacci 50% 352.3
Fibonacci 38.2% 339.8
52-Week Low 299.6

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InsideFutures Commentary

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