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Soybean Meal May '18 (ZMK18)

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Soybean Meal Futures Market News and Commentary

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower in the front months on Tuesday. Meal futures are down $3.20/ton, with soy oil down 19 points. Ahead of Friday’s USDA Planting Intentions report, traders are expecting US producers to plant 86.17 million soybean acres in 2019. If realized, that would be a drop of nearly 3 million acres from last year. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be released, with analysts at 2.728 bbu for March 1 soybean stocks, up 619 mbu from the same time in 2018. May 19 Soybeans are at $9.00 1/2, down 6 cents,Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.14, down 6 cents,Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents,Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.25 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,May 19 Soybean Meal is at $311.90, down $3.20,May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.63, down $0.19--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Soybean Meal
Contract Size
100 tons (2,000 pounds per ton)
Tick Size
10 cents per ton ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
7:00p.m. - 7:45a.m. and 8:30a.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) (Sun-Fri) CST
Exchange
CBOT
Point Value
$100
Margin/Maintenance
$1,320/1,200
First Notice Date
04/30/18
Expiration Date
05/14/18 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Soybean Meal May '18
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior May Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 19, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
228,827 (-6,304)
241,426 (+14,760)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
91,898 (+357)
90,608 (-16,724)
Producers - Long / Short
138,408 (-4,700)
206,728 (+16,050)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
67,099 (+48)
11,378 (+362)
Managed Money - Long / Short
49,536 (+2,227)
77,913 (-13,685)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
42,362 (-1,870)
12,695 (-3,039)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
369.5 +5.49%
on 04/24/18
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+7.0 (+1.83%)
since 04/13/18
3-Month
358.0 +8.88%
on 03/20/18
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+14.3 (+3.81%)
since 02/15/18
52-Week
299.6 +30.11%
on 06/23/17
404.9 -3.73%
on 05/02/18
+74.8 (+23.75%)
since 05/15/17

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 391.3
1st Resistance Point 390.6
Last Price 389.8s
1st Support Level 388.3
2nd Support Level 386.7

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52-Week High 404.9
Last Price 389.8s
Fibonacci 61.8% 364.7
Fibonacci 50% 352.3
Fibonacci 38.2% 339.8
52-Week Low 299.6

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